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Malthusian

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ringringlingling ringringlingling's picture
Malthusian
I'd always thought this was a biblical reference to the bizarre lineage given in "begats" section of the bible, which has bizarre claims of people living to be 930 years of age, and has someone named Methuselah but apparently this has to do with Thomas Malthus. While I agree that some form of population control is desirable and probably necessary, I do not necessarily agree that social welfare leads to increased population growth among the lower classes, and in fact the data tends to support the opposite conclusion, that people breed more while under stress and living in poverty.
Panoptic Panoptic's picture
The poor weren't always the
The poor weren't always the most prolific in all circumstances. That has changed however. From "Fertility trends by social status" by Vegard Skirbekk in Demographic Research, Mar 28, 2008 http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol18/5/18-5.pdf
Quote:
1. Introduction Before the onset of fertility decline, individuals of higher social standing have frequently been identified to have more children compared to individuals of lower social standing (Betzig 1986, Razi 1980, Sogner, Randsborg and Fure 1984). With a decline in fertility levels, however, high status has often been found to be associated with relatively low fertility (e.g., Coale and Watkins 1986, Cochrane 1979, Haines 1992, Jejeebhoy 1995), although some studies argue that the fertility-status relation remain positive (Fieder et al. 2005, Hull and Hull 1977, Stys 1957, Wrong 1958). Italy is an example of a country where the status-fertility relation switched from positive to negative. Livi Bacci (1977) studies three Italian cities from the 15th to the 18th centuries and find a positive relation between status and childbearing outcomes for all of them. For example in Florence in 1427, poor 30-34 year old women had 3.0 children; the middle income group had 3.6, while the richest had 4.9 children. Observations from 20th century Italy, however, show a negative relation between fertility and occupational rank/educational length (FFS 2006, Jones 1982). Bardet (1983) is a rare study that actually shows how the status-fertility relation between identical groups’ switches from positive to negative over time. Bardet studies marital period fertility of four social classes from 1670 to 1789 in Rouen, France. The two lower classes, the Artisans and the Ouvriers, had about 6 children in 1670, decreased their fertility slightly first from around 1730, ending at around 5 children in 1789. However, the higher classes; the Notables, Boutiquiers and Employés, had more than 7 children in 1670, but substantially decreased their fertility from around 1700 and by 1789 had only around 4 children. In spite of the considerable academic interest in the status-fertility relation, there exists no study that reviews more than a fraction of the available evidence. In this investigation a dataset several times larger than the ones used so far is collected.2 The dataset is used to study the impact of fertility variation by status over time and during the demographic transition. I investigate to which extent fertility decline is initiated by elites and later imitated by the rest of the population. I also test whether the status-fertility differences eventually converge when fertility levels reach replacement levels and below.
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ringringlingling ringringlingling's picture
Hmmm
well i guess that might support the opposite conclusion. I think living in a state of constant fear and violence whilst being provided with material abundance in terms of food and other necessities is more likely to result in more children than living in a state of material scarcity but relatively stable governance. I read a book thats premise was that a woman bio engineered a virus that would result in a massive plague wiping out most of the earths population. Her demands were that the g-8 donate 3% of the nations GDP towards educating women throughout the world because, according to the author, the only definitive policy shown to have an effect on reducing population growth was providing women with an education. She was very much a malthusian in assuming that overpopulation would result in reduction of the population one way or another, and sort of took the bull by the horns. Might make for a good EP plot.
ringringlingling ringringlingling's picture
Fertilizer Production and the Haber Process
So I've been doing some research, and the reason we are able to sustain the population explosion from the 19th century is in large part due to ammonium nitrate fertilizer which we are able to produce due to the Haber process. This process is dependent upon fossil fuels to produce the temperatures and pressures required to produce the nearly half billion tons of fertilizer we produce each year. This fertilizer quadruples the yield of land used for agriculture and makes our current population numbers possible. I do not have any numbers regarding how much fuel it takes to produce this amount of fertilizer every year, but I imagine it requires quite a lot of power.
Panoptic Panoptic's picture
If it weren't for industrial
If it weren't for industrial quantities of fertiliser, Malthus' prediction would have likely been pretty accurate. One consequence is a dependency on massive quantities of energy, not to mention the need for the base materials and the logistics to move both those and the finished fertiliser around.
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