In another topic we talked about how mass decentralization of production will lead to unemployement.
Here is an invention that will be ready within a decade that will cost millions of jobs worldwide:
http://singularityhub.com/2011/01/06/google-translates-conversation-mode...
Yup, its going to be amazing for millions of people involved in translation of documents, interpreters and translators... Possibly much better. Google Translate learns how to convert between languages by examining millions of documents and developing rules for translation that constantly evolve. Because it is cloud-based, you can access improvements in Google Translate almost as soon as they are made. Conversation Mode (and its successors) won’t just be a great semi-universal translator, it will be a tool that changes as the languages of the world change. A UT not just for today, but for the future in perpetuity. In five years I expect I will be able to travel around the world and never need a translator besides my phone. In ten I think the language barrier will be so crumbled that we will take it for granted that we are crossing over it many times each day. It’s going to be amazing.
—

[img]http://boxall.no-ip.org/img/A_Rep.jpg[/img] 2 [img]http://boxall.no-ip.org/img/R_Rep.jpg[/img] 7 [img]http://boxall.no-ip.org/img/C_Rep.jpg[/img] 2
[img]http://i.imgur.com/qtBZ9.jpg[/img]
[img]http://i.imgur.com/AT25J.jpg[/img]
root@Singularity and Unemployment
[hr] The economy is not a sum-zero game. Taking away a set of jobs with automation does not reduce the number of jobs available, because there is no fixed number of jobs. The current economic crisis is not caused by evil robotic slaves stealing jobs, it's because the world's cash flow is based on trust in the worth of currency, and that trust was raped in the face by a bunch of banks and the people running them.@-rep +1
|c-rep +1
|g-rep +1
|r-rep +1
]root@Singularity and unemployment
[hr] There is no infinite number of jobs, but there is also no fixed number of jobs. When jobs are "taken away" by a robot, any displaced human needs to retrain in order to get a new job. This sucks for the displaced worker, as their life-long employment prospects take a nasty hit and this can wreck entire communities. However, the basic principal of a job is that person A pays person B to do task T. If person A has the cash to hire person B, they can find any number of tasks T for people to do, as they are now creating a business. This is all Chicago school economics, so there are good arguments against it (such as the employment prospects damage, which is ignored by many globalization enthusiasts), but the idea of a finite number of jobs is not one of them.@-rep +1
|c-rep +1
|g-rep +1
|r-rep +1
]root@Singularity and unemployment
[hr] Another consideration is the reputation economy. If massive numbers of people are unemployed and have access to communications technology, they still need a way to decide who to spend their effort for. I'm guessing that any real life reputation economies will be born out of unemployed, educated masses as a direct competitor for standard currency. If the money economy isn't working, find something else to trade and refuse to accept the nebulous "credit" that makes up our "money" in exchange for goods and services. Even if robots take every job that exists, there is still a reputation economy. Now the trick is finding a way to get food and shelter out of a reputation economy.@-rep +1
|c-rep +1
|g-rep +1
|r-rep +1
]+1 r-Rep , +1 @-rep


[img]http://boxall.no-ip.org/img/A_Rep.jpg[/img] 2 [img]http://boxall.no-ip.org/img/R_Rep.jpg[/img] 7 [img]http://boxall.no-ip.org/img/C_Rep.jpg[/img] 2
[img]http://i.imgur.com/qtBZ9.jpg[/img]
[img]http://i.imgur.com/AT25J.jpg[/img]
root@Singularity and unemployment
[hr] I ran across the wikipedia article on anti-work, which is an ethic against working on the basis that work is inherently lacking in utility. More precisely, it speaks about reducing the amount of work that is required from each individual by finding labor-saving methods and better automation. This idea crashes face first into the evidence that increases in automation, optimization, and economic modeling have not only failed to reduce the amount of work expected of members of society, it has increased expectations though forced competition with the automated systems. Why that happens isn't very hard to understand, as it is the classic problem of capital vs labor. The work-saving devices are controlled by the capitalist, so the labor never sees any of the benefits of this efficiency. Other than personal ethics, there is no reason for anyone in control of the means of production to share them with the population as a whole. In fact, speaking in public about sharing the means of production with the masses is met with charges of socialism, wanting a welfare state, of being lazy, a leach off of society, etc, etc. Watch Fox News for five minutes if you are unsure as to what I mean. In Eclipse Phase, the autonomists control their own means of production, so are able to avoid this problem and live in communal happiness in deep space. I am curious about theories on how they managed to get a hold of these nanofacs in the first place. The details of how the autonomists got into space and gained possession of the resources needed to be self-sustaining, let alone compete against the hypercorps, are entirely ignored, which makes all of the outer-system utopias and collectives seem like an fantasy for the politically discontent. I see no viable way for those groups to have established themselves, and no way at all to get there from here.@-rep +1
|c-rep +1
|g-rep +1
|r-rep +1
]root@Singularity and unemployment
[hr] Yes, I am aware of how capitalism works. I am not arguing that capitalism hasn't done an excellent job of expanding the world's economy and dropping the price of goods. I am not arguing that the quality of life for many people in the world is significantly better than it was for their ancestors. I am not making an argument for anarchism or socialism as a replacement for our current economic models. We currently live in a scarcity economy, and capitalism has its advantages for optimally distributing resources if you can assume there are no monopolies, and that everyone is a rational agent seeking maximum utility. What I am discussing is that there is no way that I can see for there to be a transition over to a post-scarcity economy, or even an economy where people spend less time working. The amount of labor expected of a worker only ever goes up, and we keep having jobless recoveries after recessions. What I am interested in is why there is no pressure to reduce the amount of work any given employee has to do while providing as many workers as possible with the dignity of employment. What I see is that we currently live in a transitional economy. Scarcity economics hold for energy, raw materials, food and water, and the manufactured goods that we trade. Post-scarcity economics hold for information goods, as the marginal cost models used in scarcity economics do not apply to information. As in, the cost of producing another copy of an information good is nearly nothing, and by its very nature information is very hard to maintain control over. The systems we are developing to handle the information economy is a good model for how everything works when fabricators are available for public use and raw materials, energy, and blueprints are freely available. In Eclipse Phase, the autonomists got off of the planet and took off to the outer system with enough resources to set up a competing economy, despite the fact that space infrastructure was almost entirely in the hands of hypercorporations who had no problem using orbital strikes to deal with rioting and insurrection on Earth. I consider this to be bullshit, which is why this is a science-fiction game, and it is the main flaw that keeps me from seeing a path from our current economic model to the ones the autonomists use.@-rep +1
|c-rep +1
|g-rep +1
|r-rep +1
]+1 r-Rep , +1 @-rep


root@Singularity and unemployment
[hr] No doubt. But how does it get cracked in the first? Governments get touchy about people making devices that can cause an economic collapse.@-rep +1
|c-rep +1
|g-rep +1
|r-rep +1
]root@Singularity and unemployment
[hr] Given the precondition of having free colonies in the outer system, there is no way for anyone to stop the spread of information about something as valuable as a cracked nanofab, I agree with that fully. The only problem is the staggering expense of getting up the gravity well. How would these original space colonists get out their in the first place? They would have to be employees of the hypercorps and defect from there. That, I see problems with. You don't give your genie lamp to a bunch of anarchists located outside of your control.@-rep +1
|c-rep +1
|g-rep +1
|r-rep +1
]root@Singularity and unemployment
[hr] I believe the game comes to the same conclusion, but sending people out with a cornucopia machine is a terrible idea. There are psychological problems people will suffer after a few months where they've been sitting in a tin can far above the world. Anyone in possession of a genie lamp is going to be too cautious about who gets access to it than to let a bunch of people into space who they haven't extensively examined for loyalties.@-rep +1
|c-rep +1
|g-rep +1
|r-rep +1
]root@Singularity and unemployment
[hr] Again, I agree with you in every instance other than this special case. I've been using the allusion of the genie in a lamp, because that is exactly what this would be. Suppose you have Mad Scientist Kerimov, who is an exaggeration of the zero-sum game player, and he wants to be a science emperor. With the science emperor trope, you get extra points if you are both the cause of and salvation to a Singularity. One day while tinkering with his lab, M.S. Kerimov develops what he refers to as The Kudzu. This entity, this The Kudzu, will devour matter and make more of itself very prolifically. Luckily, it only devours what is fed to it, has a diet like a koala bear, and is delightfully loyal to humans. For some unexplainable reason having to do with the unobtanium in the agar, this delicious and nutritious tree grows happy, comfy clothing, and is also a recursively self-improving AGI. Currently, Mad Scientist Kerimov has control over this entity, and is showered with its blessings. He will share this wonderful new invention with the world, but not quite yet. First, he wants to get a sufficient head start, as the economy is about to shift to something else that strongly favors the first person to get there. This is your classic Throne At The Center Of The Universe trope that superheros and demigods are always fighting, so it shouldn't be unfamiliar. Kerimov wants to sit on the Throne first, but not, in his mind, because he intends to rule the world or any of that rot, but because he can't trust the next jerk over with sitting there first. For the sake of this argument, he and another person named KRAKEN EATER OF WORLDS both got their gripping digits on this device at the same time. Now the one that outmaneuvers the other get to sit on the Throne. No fucking way do I send a copy of this out into deep space with a bunch of people crazy enough to want to go into deep space. Therefore, I contend that the anarchists will not be able to crack one of these before it doesn't matter. On a less cartoonish scale, there is the black factory. It is, for all that we care here, a black box that is a factory. Things go in, economies come out. You can make more of them and string them together to make bigger versions that make more of themselves. This is a slower Singularity takeoff than with Kudzu and KEOW vs Mad Scientist Kerimov, so there is sufficient time for the anarchists to try an liberate one. In this case, I would need a very compelling argument as to why anyone would let one of these means of production out of a very tight grip. I expect these to be guarded like nuclear generators, and defended by autonomous agents loyal only to the entity that created it and controllable remotely from that entity's fortress of crazy. If several of them enter the slow part of the curve at the roughly the same time, there is a race to eliminate as many of your enemies as you can before you both become untouchable. During this period you get to pick your eternal enemies. Inside of that scenario, I could see quite a bit of fun roleplaying material. Characters trying to become a players in The Last Game Ever, or finding out about it right at the point of endgame and trying to be the ones who decide how the new world starts. Maybe you can dangle despair in front of them as they watch all of the monsters around them starting to become gods, leaving them to have a game of fighting with TITAN swarms to see who has the honor of dying last. Then, you can pull them out of cold storage in the next scene in a completely alien environment full of transhumanity.@-rep +1
|c-rep +1
|g-rep +1
|r-rep +1
]root@Singularity and unemployment
[hr] Looking at my argument again, it only really makes sense if the first cornucopia machine produces enough to push it's owner to the top of the economy. If it merely produces on the scale of normal production methods, but is flexible enough to produce nearly anything, the argument is silly. In the second case, there is no way for an owner to push their fortune to incredible extents without replicating it and having employees. Once it is the hands of more than one person, it will inevitably get hacked as you describe.@-rep +1
|c-rep +1
|g-rep +1
|r-rep +1
]root@Singularity and unemployment
[hr] I agree with you on the incentives that push businesses towards employing fewer and better people. I may not like the current economic situation, but I am not criticizing corporations and small business for the choices they make. They are machines designed for profit and efficiency, and they are very well suited to that task. Companies cannot be asked to be ethical in the same way that sharks cannot be asked to be vegetarian; it violates every reason for their existence. My point is that the incentives of a capitalist economy will continually push more workers out of their positions and into the labor pool as more efficient methods of business are discovered and their skills become redundant. The longer these workers are in the labor pool, the more that their "worth" decreases for businesses as their skills become obsolete or rusty. They have to retrain to stay competitive, which is inherently risky as there is no guarantee that the field they retrain into will still be there by the time their education is complete. Worse, if the worker has to retrain often, they will quickly become overqualified for any position, and won't be able to compete against younger, cheaper, less qualified applicants. As you pointed out, this leads to those who are employed working more, and there are institutional disadvantages to hiring more people to work fewer hours each. Benefits, as you pointed out, are the primary problem. The marginal cost of hiring another (hourly) employee is compared against the cost of adding overtime pay to someone already hired, and often the overtime is cheaper than the cost of benefits, recruitment, training, and team integration. Once again, there is nothing wrong with companies doing this; their only concern is efficiency. Now lets project this into the extremes of a Singularity. The marginal cost of hiring a new employee is going to be compared with the marginal cost of a new computing system and copying an expert system. Since the employee needs to learn the skills over time, and they work more slowly than a computer system, it is cheaper to get the new computer. As more and more of the skills that we think of as being too complicated for computer are solved (Logic Theorist improved on a theorem in the Principia Mathematica in 1956, MYCIN outperformed junior doctors in diagnosing blood infections in the early 1970's, stock traders are steadily being replaced by algorithmic traders now, and we'll find out soon if Jeopardy falls to an AI), even skilled jobs such as positions in engineering, science, and philosophy will start having the problems that less skilled labor currently faces. There is also no reason to suspect that artistic skills won't also be trumped by what a computer can do, so artists, poets, and authors are also in trouble. Pushed to an extreme, no one is employed, and the only people with any assets are the ones who owned the AI systems back when humans still worked. There is something wrong with this, and this leads me to believe that laissez-faire economics will eventually put everyone out of work and won't share any of the benefits of the Singularity. So I'm interested in coming up with systems that work to decrease the amount of work each person does, rather than the average work done per person. Since I believe that capitalism does a good job of distributing resources in scarcity economies (assuming no monopolies and rational agents), I am interested in how to transition from a capitalist economy to a fully socialist economy as the number of economies still ruled by scarcity approach zero. On a side note, the "nobility of work" is bullshit. There is dignity in work when you live in a culture that values work, but I do not believe there is any inherent value to breaking your back from dawn until dusk and never having enough free time to simply enjoy the fact that you are alive. I have found that the homeless and the idle wealthy have more in common with each other than either does with the working classes. They both have a great deal in common with those employed in intellectual fields, and they all contrast blackly with those who are forced to labor in unskilled or semi-skilled positions. Since there are more and more people in this labor pool, the economics push their pay down to as close to the edge of survival as is manageable. The stress of living like this leads to illness, violence, crime, and can be the environmental catalyst that triggers insanity in people at risk for such things. On a side side note, The Green Slime is right on the flaws with my reasoning about fab machines, and the same argument may apply to my reasoning here.@-rep +1
|c-rep +1
|g-rep +1
|r-rep +1
]Pages