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Singularity and unemployement

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Extrasolar Angel Extrasolar Angel's picture
Singularity and unemployement
In another topic we talked about how mass decentralization of production will lead to unemployement. Here is an invention that will be ready within a decade that will cost millions of jobs worldwide: http://singularityhub.com/2011/01/06/google-translates-conversation-mode...
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Possibly much better. Google Translate learns how to convert between languages by examining millions of documents and developing rules for translation that constantly evolve. Because it is cloud-based, you can access improvements in Google Translate almost as soon as they are made. Conversation Mode (and its successors) won’t just be a great semi-universal translator, it will be a tool that changes as the languages of the world change. A UT not just for today, but for the future in perpetuity. In five years I expect I will be able to travel around the world and never need a translator besides my phone. In ten I think the language barrier will be so crumbled that we will take it for granted that we are crossing over it many times each day. It’s going to be amazing.
Yup, its going to be amazing for millions of people involved in translation of documents, interpreters and translators...
[I]Raise your hands to the sky and break the chains. With transhumanism we can smash the matriarchy together.[/i]
Rhyx Rhyx's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
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Yup, its going to be amazing for millions of people involved in translation of documents, interpreters and translators...
Oh come on, it won't be the first time that a job is made obsolete by technology yet everyone still has plenty to do.
Extrasolar Angel Extrasolar Angel's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
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Oh come on, it won't be the first time that a job is made obsolete by technology yet everyone still has plenty to do.
Have you looked outside lately? Because yup, no unemployment problems lately in the world, none at all... Let's face-technological innovation reduces the number of jobs available.We are reaching peak employement-perhaps global-wide legislation on banning technologies that replace workers should be enforced...
[I]Raise your hands to the sky and break the chains. With transhumanism we can smash the matriarchy together.[/i]
root root's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
root@Singularity and Unemployment [hr] The economy is not a sum-zero game. Taking away a set of jobs with automation does not reduce the number of jobs available, because there is no fixed number of jobs. The current economic crisis is not caused by evil robotic slaves stealing jobs, it's because the world's cash flow is based on trust in the worth of currency, and that trust was raped in the face by a bunch of banks and the people running them.
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Extrasolar Angel Extrasolar Angel's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
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Taking away a set of jobs with automation does not reduce the number of jobs available, because there is no fixed number of jobs.
That's a manipulation. There is no infinite number of jobs. Automation has and will lead to jobs decrease.
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The current economic crisis is not caused by evil robotic slaves stealing jobs, it's because the world's cash flow is based on trust in the worth of currency, and that trust was raped in the face by a bunch of banks and the people running them.
Part of the crisis is also the fall of manufacturing. It's also easy to guess that such invention will lead to loss of jobs-in my view we should beyond the naive view that "all progress is good and can't be stopped"-inventions that are designed with reducing jobs in mind should be banned with worldwide enforcement.
[I]Raise your hands to the sky and break the chains. With transhumanism we can smash the matriarchy together.[/i]
root root's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
root@Singularity and unemployment [hr] There is no infinite number of jobs, but there is also no fixed number of jobs. When jobs are "taken away" by a robot, any displaced human needs to retrain in order to get a new job. This sucks for the displaced worker, as their life-long employment prospects take a nasty hit and this can wreck entire communities. However, the basic principal of a job is that person A pays person B to do task T. If person A has the cash to hire person B, they can find any number of tasks T for people to do, as they are now creating a business. This is all Chicago school economics, so there are good arguments against it (such as the employment prospects damage, which is ignored by many globalization enthusiasts), but the idea of a finite number of jobs is not one of them.
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flatpointer flatpointer's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
There's a few problems with that suggestion - how do we determine in advance whether an invention will decrease or increase the number of jobs? Over what timeframe? Computers and programming have probably gotten rid of plenty jobs, but currently also employ lots of folks. And net job gains/losses vary over time - a technology may lead to people loosing jobs a few decades later, or it could create jobs overnight. Or some combination thereof. Also, who will determine this? And how would it be enforced? I don't think it's a terribly tenable plan/idea you have there, frankly. There is no obvious path towards a) determining in advance that a technology will net a loss of jobs over a timeframe left unspecified and b) enforce any proscription you're asking for. Even if there were ways to resolve A & B, any country or organization which goes around such leverages a huge advantage - if I don't have to pay people to light candles and fires because I have HVAC and electric lighting, I can spend that money doing something actually relevant to my business/country/organization. So the incentive is to ignore anything like 'no disruptive technologies.' You need to read this. Also, you did read Eclipse Phase, correct? Did you notice how the New Economy clades of humanity feature a literal four-hour workweek (if I recall correctly)? Though it may be fiction at present, the idea is that we don't necessarily have to work the way we do now in the future. Not to say it won't be a bumpy ride - but the way we work will change, one way or another. And you're not going to be able to put the brakes on every technology until you've seen whether or not it'll cause some unemployment or employment. I think the best you can ask from a state is to make sure citizens have access to high-quality education, so they can ride the waves of technological disruption. And so that wiping out (losing a job, getting injured) is not the absolute end of employable life for people.
root root's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
root@Singularity and unemployment [hr] Another consideration is the reputation economy. If massive numbers of people are unemployed and have access to communications technology, they still need a way to decide who to spend their effort for. I'm guessing that any real life reputation economies will be born out of unemployed, educated masses as a direct competitor for standard currency. If the money economy isn't working, find something else to trade and refuse to accept the nebulous "credit" that makes up our "money" in exchange for goods and services. Even if robots take every job that exists, there is still a reputation economy. Now the trick is finding a way to get food and shelter out of a reputation economy.
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nezumi.hebereke nezumi.hebereke's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
I agree with Rhyx. In a local economy, automation shifts jobs, but it rarely permanently destroys them. The current unemployment is due to a lack of liquid capital. I think that's pretty universally agreed upon. Automation has been rolling on since the plow, yet generally unemployment is somewhere between 5 and 14%. Automation has reduced the workweek though, and has increased our relative level of luxury, so that's nice. On a global scale it works a little differently. Automation changes the needs in base resources and types of manufacturing, which may force nations, like people, to 'retrain' or get left behind. Generally the nation that invents the automation doesn't suffer as much as those trailing behind.
Extrasolar Angel Extrasolar Angel's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
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When jobs are "taken away" by a robot, any displaced human needs to retrain in order to get a new job.
"Retrain"A corpo-slang word for meaning people's lives are over. Most people are too old or too poor to "retrain" or compete with people already educated in the field and 23-24 years old.
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Automation has been rolling on since the plow, yet generally unemployment is somewhere between 5 and 14%. Automation has reduced the workweek though, and has increased our relative level of luxury
You are of course talking about specific country? Because I can't see it in my environment.
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Im guessing that any real life reputation economies will be born out of unemployed, educated masses as a direct competitor for standard currency.
Reputation economy is just a nice word to cover nepotism and cronyism. It's a dystopian vision of the future, where you are dead if you don't have connections. Living in high level unemployement area, I know very well what "reputation economy" means on labour market.
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which may force nations, like people, to 'retrain'
Hmm, "retraining nations". Do you even realise how dystopian that sounds. The very sentence brings chills. PS:Fun fact:non-industrial nations that are not advanced in technological means of production have higher happiness index values than first world countries. Would you rather be a fisherman in Vanatu or data entry clerk in Chicago?
[I]Raise your hands to the sky and break the chains. With transhumanism we can smash the matriarchy together.[/i]
TBRMInsanity TBRMInsanity's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
My take on the Singularity and unemployment is that in traditional economies, you still need to justify the work you do with worth, and as such you will still have unemployment. In a new economy, there are no real "jobs" per say, and as a result you truly don't have unemployment at all (just those that are too lazy to contribute to the success of society and suffer because of it). As pointed out above, if a robot is designed to do someone's job, that doesn't mean there is one less job. It just means that the person's job has become more technical (there is now the jobs needed to maintain that robot). Modernization of the workforce means there are more higher skilled jobs created.
Jovian Motto: Your mind is original. Preserve it. Your body is a temple. Maintain it. Immortality is an illusion. Forget it.
Extrasolar Angel Extrasolar Angel's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
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if a robot is designed to do someone's job, that doesn't mean there is one less job. It just means that the person's job has become more technical (there is now the jobs needed to maintain that robot).
What if robots maintain robots ?
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Modernization of the workforce means there are more higher skilled jobs created.
Nope, it means that there is demand for high skilled labour. However number of that skilled labour will be less than the number of unskilled labour needed before. Hence-higher competition, more stress, more hardship for people. Thus-less technological inovations equal less stress for workforce, better living conditions.
[I]Raise your hands to the sky and break the chains. With transhumanism we can smash the matriarchy together.[/i]
nezumi.hebereke nezumi.hebereke's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
Extrasolar Angel wrote:
"Retrain"A corpo-slang word for meaning people's lives are over. Most people are too old or too poor to "retrain" or compete with people already educated in the field and 23-24 years old. ... You are of course talking about specific country? Because I can't see it in my environment.
I'm getting the distinct impression you have a personal stake in this discussion...
Extrasolar Angel Extrasolar Angel's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
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I'm getting the distinct impression you have a personal stake in this discussion...
I am not 57, in fact much younger, but I see simple sentences about how "people/nations will have to retrain" as particularly coldly ruthless.57-60 year old people won't be able to retrain to compete with already trained youngsters without families(I don't have a family for that matter) This all reminds me of two good pieces pieces: They came first for the Communists, and I didn't speak up because I wasn't a Communist. Then they came for the trade unionists, and I didn't speak up because I wasn't a trade unionist. Then they came for the Jews, and I didn't speak up because I wasn't a Jew. Then they came for me and by that time no one was left to speak up. **** They came first for the taxi drivers, and I didn't speak up because I wasn't a taxi driver. Then they came for the translators, and I didn't speak up because I wasn't a translator. Then they came for the radiologists, and I didn't speak up because I wasn't a radiologist Then they came for me and by that time no one was left to speak up. *** And this great one I read somewhere: "What you need to understand about the apocalypse is that you aren't Mad Max. You're part of the skull pyramid in the background." Most people excited about progress and technology delude themselves that they will be the part of society benefiting from the coming changes, not the ones being skull pyramids in the background...
[I]Raise your hands to the sky and break the chains. With transhumanism we can smash the matriarchy together.[/i]
nick012000 nick012000's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
Extrasolar Angel wrote:
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I'm getting the distinct impression you have a personal stake in this discussion...
I am not 57, in fact much younger, but I see simple sentences about how "people/nations will have to retrain" as particularly coldly ruthless.57-60 year old people won't be able to retrain to compete with already trained youngsters without families(I don't have a family for that matter)
With biological immortality, everyone is a youngster.

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Arenamontanus Arenamontanus's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
The key question is: what kind of system can do a desired job most cheaply? It could be a human, a human working with automation (complementarity), or pure automation(substitutability). As long as automation cannot substitute or it makes sense to change the job to a complementary job (for example how secretaries these days do much more advanced stuff than they once did, simply because so much of the tasks can be partially automated) then more automation will not cause unemployment, and will in fact increase productivity. It is only when something gets substituted away when you lose jobs in that sector. New kinds of jobs emerge to handle new technologies and services, and because they become affordable because the economy becomes more productive. Automobiles made most stablehands superfluous, but created jobs for auto mechanics, traffic planners and transport companies. If autos become fully autonomous robots drivers might be out of jobs, but now car programmers and smart traffic designers become viable professions - as well as new uses of transport we currently can't afford because there are expensive drivers. Note that these shifts can be dramatic. Once 99% of people were farmers, now it is just ~2% at most. They became industrial workers, but now that number is fast declining as people move into the service sector. Soon manufacturing is going to be as tiny as agriculture in the total economy. The thing to really look for is perfect substitutability of services with low cost. An AI or AGI that can do the same job as a human is likely to soon be cheaper (since it can be copied once it is trained), and then that job will become a job for AIs. If it is general, then all jobs AIs can do more cheaply will soon be done by AI or mutate into a human complemented by AIs. The same can be argued with forks: forking is a way of lowering labour costs by copying human capital. In Eclipse Phase, no job that can be done with a skill of 40 needs a transhuman - there are AI and skillware to do it. Ditch-digging will not be done by any transhuman unless there is some added value in it ("I am a local hydrology manager, I coordinate landscaping systems for maximal ecological, aesthetic and feng shui efficiency"). And getting a skill 60 transhuman or AI to do something is very cheap - it is when you need the skill 80 experts when the price starts to come up. In the future these levels will creep upward as AI improves, people fork and the economy becomes even more productive.
Extropian
nezumi.hebereke nezumi.hebereke's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
Extrasolar Angel wrote:
I am not 57, in fact much younger,
I'm not saying you're 57. I'm saying in two separate threads when people say 'things may be a lot better! Tools and automation help people', you complain about 'not in my country'. Fortunately (I guess) most of us don't live in your country. I myself have lived in four countries on three continents, and I've as of yet to see one where technology caused anything more than a decade-long rise in unemployment, as industries shift. I've seen far more people be out of the job due to human stupidity (housing bubble, IT bubble, oligarchies under the name of "communism" and so on) then I have due to the introduction of a new technology, or even off-shoring. Yes, retraining happens and it sucks - but as an adult, we are responsible for planning for our own futures. If you're 57 and don't have a retirement account and didn't bother doing the work to maintain a broad and current background of skills, you're going to get raped if the niche you depend on shifts. But that isn't the fault of technology. Technology has shifted our population from 90% working in agriculture to 2%, from 80% working in manufacturing to 10%. If you count the number of jobs 'destroyed' from technology since 1900, it's well over 100% by now. Yet somehow unemployment has always stayed in that same window of about 5-14%, except when some dummy has to go break stuff by waging war or instituting destructive government policies, or wreaking havoc on the money supply. I can understand, from the standpoint of 'I work at my job and I see people unemployed', technology can seem like a Bad Thing. But from the wider perspective of 300 years of history, across the span of the globe, for the vast majority of people, it's a very good thing. I'm not trying to go off on you, and I apologize if it comes across like that.
flatpointer flatpointer's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
Extrasolar Angel, could you please not compare unemployment to genocide? Thanks. 'No one was left to speak up' kind of implies these people are all dead. Unemployed people are definitely still around to speak up. (I invoke GODWIN'S LAW!) That said, hadn't heard that Mad Max universe quote before. Like that. Knew some folks who thought that kind of apocalyptic scenario would be rocking because they... had relevant skills? Wait, they were art students at college. Yeah, more skulls for the skull pyramid.
TBRMInsanity TBRMInsanity's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
Extrasolar Angel wrote:
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if a robot is designed to do someone's job, that doesn't mean there is one less job. It just means that the person's job has become more technical (there is now the jobs needed to maintain that robot).
What if robots maintain robots ?
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Modernization of the workforce means there are more higher skilled jobs created.
Nope, it means that there is demand for high skilled labour. However number of that skilled labour will be less than the number of unskilled labour needed before. Hence-higher competition, more stress, more hardship for people. Thus-less technological inovations equal less stress for workforce, better living conditions.
I would like to point out that at least in Europe and North America, there are far more jobs (and more higher skilled jobs) there in all of recorded history. This is on top of the fact we have mostly automated manufacturing now. Further more the IT industry is currently suffering from a lack of skilled workers. In Canada alone, we are expecting that only 10% of the future IT jobs will be filled by individuals choosing a career in IT. As a result we are going to need to look to other countries like India and China to fill the gaps. The number of jobs is also increasing and there is no sight of this changing in the near future. I know Americans are getting hit hard right now, and unemployment is sky-rocketing, but if an individual can adapt to the changing job market and gain the appropriate skills quickly, they will always find work.
Jovian Motto: Your mind is original. Preserve it. Your body is a temple. Maintain it. Immortality is an illusion. Forget it.
Extrasolar Angel Extrasolar Angel's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
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Fortunately (I guess) most of us don't live in your country
Well, I will risk a guess that most of people on the board don't live in third world ;)
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With biological immortality, everyone is a youngster.
Assuming humans still exist.
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Once 99% of people were farmers, now it is just ~2% at most. They became industrial workers, but now that number is fast declining as people move into the service sector.
I think you are making a somewhat flawed assumption. I don't know anybody from manufacturing or mining sector who moved into services-jobs moved, but not people.
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Yes, retraining happens and it sucks - but as an adult, we are responsible for planning for our own futures
A-many would argue that we elect governments to provide us with safe future B-how can I plan my future if villains like the ones mentioned in the opening post plot to destroy it?And they have resources far beyond my abilities...
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Technology has shifted our population from 90% working in agriculture to 2%,
I am sure the children cleaning XIX century industry chimneys were very happy that they no longer had to milk cows on green pastures ;) As are todays data entry clerks and corporate dron-workers that they don't live life as fishermen in Oceania. By the way-which country are you writing about ? Because that numbers seem country specific?
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I would like to point out that at least in Europe and North America, there are far more jobs (and more higher skilled jobs) there in all of recorded history.
Excuse me ? Care to give me unemployement data for Ukraine, Transnistria, Latvia for example ? There around 50 countries in Europe, I wouldn't make such general statements. Out of hand here is the unemployement data for Poland starting from 1990: http://www.stat.gov.pl/gus/5840_677_PLK_HTML.htm You don't need to read Polish to know that unemployement was at its lowest in the past, and throughout almost two decades since has remained around 15%.
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if an individual can adapt to the changing job market and gain the appropriate skills quickly, they will always find work.
There is nothing in this sentence that couldn't be described as anything else as "survive or die". Social Darwinism in its most ruthless, heartless form.
[I]Raise your hands to the sky and break the chains. With transhumanism we can smash the matriarchy together.[/i]
nezumi.hebereke nezumi.hebereke's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
Extrasolar Angel wrote:
Well, I will risk a guess that most of people on the board don't live in third world ;)
Four years in Venezuela and three in Moscow (the latter being Second World, but it certainly lent perspective). There was no shortage of poor people in both, but they weren't poor because of technology. They were poor because they were denied access to basic medical and educational facilities. They didn't lose jobs because the jobs moved elsewhere. They lost jobs because men with guns took what they had and gave them to someone else.
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A-many would argue that we elect governments to provide us with safe future
Governments aren't responsible for living your life for you. You are still responsible for your own future, your own career, your own work.
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B-how can I plan my future if villains like the ones mentioned in the opening post plot to destroy it?And they have resources far beyond my abilities...
You're saying Google is a villain plotting to destroy your future?
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I am sure the children cleaning XIX century industry chimneys were very happy that they no longer had to milk cows on green pastures ;) As are todays data entry clerks and corporate dron-workers that they don't live life as fishermen in Oceania.
Of the happiest nations in the world, all but 1 (Guatemala - surprise to me!) are high-tech, first world. All but 7 are Europe (the remainder being Australia, Canada and Guatemala). Ultimately though, happiness isn't given by technology, it's given by stability and self-determination. Technology is just tools. Your argument is, almost literally, 'a bad carpenter blames his tools'.
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By the way-which country are you writing about ? Because that numbers seem country specific?
The US is the easiest to track, but it's the same story across western Europe.
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if an individual can adapt to the changing job market and gain the appropriate skills quickly, they will always find work.
There is nothing in this sentence that couldn't be described as anything else as "survive or die". Social Darwinism in its most ruthless, heartless form.
Funny, I read it as "take charge of your life, do your own work, don't get lazy". I guess I'm still a capitalist at heart.
Extrasolar Angel Extrasolar Angel's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
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You are still responsible for your own future, your own career, your own work.
That's a very weak argument. How can one be responsible for future if megacorporations plot to destroy your life with resources that are beyond any individual to resist?
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Governments aren't responsible for living your life for you.
That avoids the issue if they are responsible for protecting our lives from destructive influences of others.
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Of the happiest nations in the world, all but 1 (Guatemala - surprise to me!) are high-tech, first world. All but 7 are Europe (the remainder being Australia, Canada and Guatemala).
Which data did you use? I know several surveys. Most can't avoid the fact that low-tech countries are within the top happiest group.
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Ultimately though, happiness isn't given by technology, it's given by stability and self-determination
So this confirms that progress for progress sake is not the answer.
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The US is the easiest to track, but it's the same story across western Europe.
A minority in the world. And not even the whole Europe.
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Funny, I read it as "take charge of your life, do your own work, don't get lazy"
That slongan is kind of hard to take seriously with megacorporations making decisions or gadgets that can destroy your life in a day, no matter what how hard you work. Not to mention work is not available to many anyway.
[I]Raise your hands to the sky and break the chains. With transhumanism we can smash the matriarchy together.[/i]
nezumi.hebereke nezumi.hebereke's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
Extrasolar Angel wrote:
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You are still responsible for your own future, your own career, your own work.
That's a very weak argument. How can one be responsible for future if megacorporations plot to destroy your life with resources that are beyond any individual to resist?
Now you're not arguing against technology, you're arguing against megacorps - and I'd agree (to a degree). The issue isn't tech. It's people. You brought up Poland before. Poland is a terrible example, it's cherry-picking in both time and space. Poland is a large, flat land between angry neighbors. All of Eastern Europe has been, frankly, abused. I saw how the Soviet Union dealt with it's own people, and I've heard enough stories to know what it did to those people who aren't even Russian. The USSR fell not 20 years ago. Poland is wholly independent for the first time in how long? Frankly, Poland is owed reparations. They're going to be working off the damage suffered for generations. And even now, it's not like they aren't getting kicked. Russia doesn't play fair, when it's practically run by big names like GAZPROM. You can't beat that. It's big groups of people with guns who are making life tough.
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Which data did you use? I know several surveys. Most can't avoid the fact that low-tech countries are within the top happiest group.
Let's see, we have the Gallup Poll, in which has 7/10 in Europe (remaining being Costa Rica, New Zealand and Canada) http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/07/03/worlds-happiest-countries_n_633... The other number was from the World Database of Happiness http://www.financialjesus.com/how-to-get-rich/top-10-happiest-countries/ (Both of these you can look up the final results directly, at the source, but it's messier.) The availability of technology, for the most part, seems pretty irrelevant, compared to other factors (indeed, including 'giant consortiums coming in and taking your stuff').
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So this confirms that progress for progress sake is not the answer.
For happiness? No. It serves other purposes for us as a species and as individuals, though.
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The US is the easiest to track, but it's the same story across western Europe.
A minority in the world. And not even the whole Europe.
Your claim is that technology takes jobs. If we look at places where technology has been applied to eliminate specific jobs, the overall answer is no, in the end, it does not increase the number of people without jobs (which is what we actually care about). I don't know how you plan on proving or disproving that by focusing on nations where technology has not been used to eliminate jobs.
Extrasolar Angel Extrasolar Angel's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
To be honest this topic is so much depressing, that I think I will leave this thread where it is, it's better to focus on fun things, than dwell on the unfortunate condition of the world we now live in.
[I]Raise your hands to the sky and break the chains. With transhumanism we can smash the matriarchy together.[/i]
TBRMInsanity TBRMInsanity's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
Extrasolar Angel wrote:
There is nothing in this sentence that couldn't be described as anything else as "survive or die". Social Darwinism in its most ruthless, heartless form.
It isn't Social Darwinism, it is fact. We live in an ever changing world where the average jobs are becoming more and more technical (even "labour" based jobs like electricians and plumbers). If you have the skill sets of a 1950's factory worker, and you never took the opportunity to upgrade your skill set over the last 60 years, you are doomed to become unemployed and not be able to find a job. If you constantly try to improve your education and keep up with the development of your industry then you will always find work, and that work will more then likely be more technical in nature. On a side note you pointed out countries that are suffering in this modern age (Poland and the Ukraine). This I believe (and your entitled to disagree with me) this is a result of Soviet upbringing in these countries. The Soviets forced hyper specialization in the work force and as a result, in our modern and ever changing world, these workers no longer have the skill set to find jobs. Those that can re-educate themselves will be better off, and will be able to find or create jobs. Here is a related presentation: http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/TEDTalks_video/~5/WzeD8o4CnNk/HannaRosin_... It isn't all doom and gloom. It is just going to be a rough ride for the next decade for the individuals that won't accept the waves of change that are upon us. Embrace change and grow with it, don't be swallowed up.
Jovian Motto: Your mind is original. Preserve it. Your body is a temple. Maintain it. Immortality is an illusion. Forget it.
Rhyx Rhyx's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
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It isn't all doom and gloom. It is just going to be a rough ride for the next decade for the individuals that won't accept the waves of change that are upon us. Embrace change and grow with it, don't be swallowed up.
I agree with this statement 100%. The key to survival has always been to adapt to changing conditions.
emaughan emaughan's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
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Have you looked outside lately? Because yup, no unemployment problems lately in the world, none at all... Let's face-technological innovation reduces the number of jobs available
The current job crisis in the U.S. has far more to do with the current heads in Washington and nothing to do with robots replacing people. Obama and the dems tried to use even more goverment and spending to get us out of a burst bubble that was caused by too much government and spending (I know... ironic). Employment will pick up again, if market friendly policies are put emplace (less government, less regulation, less taxing of the producers while rewarding the non-producers). I do believe that someday we may reach a point where they're few if any jobs for people left. If one can make an improved "Robby the Robot" that can preform any physical, or mental task, that a human can, then there will be little demand for human labor. Of course "Robby" will probably be many different specialized units, the point is that human labor will be replaced someday. Follow the technology line, it gets steeper with time and shows no signs of leveling off. The only jobs that will be available in such a world will be the ones crafting novelty products that are made by "real human labor", much like handcrafted furnature fills a niche today. Musicians and artist will probably still have jobs as well - the rest of may end up on government cheese in a "socialist liberal utopia" (blech!!). This assumes "Robby" does not suffer an error and decides that humans are illogical, innefficient, and must be wiped out. Now here is a scarier thought, and more likely, what happens when a government no longer needs the people to produce for the nation? I can see many powerful governments using the power of the state (and the machines run by the state) to completely control the populace. This would include elimination of any opposition to that government, and even forced reductions in the population - for environmental reasons. A state that no longer needs the consent of the governed would be a very nasty thing.
Axel the Chimeric Axel the Chimeric's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
I'd argue that government spending and policies are bad enough for companies to rebuild, but I'd point out that it's the fear of MORE policies that upsets it further. Today, you might be rolling in enough money to hire 20 new employees, but tomorrow, you might have to let ten go on the swivel of the president's pen. That sort of uncertainty makes companies shell up.
The Doctor The Doctor's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
emaughan wrote:
I do believe that someday we may reach a point where they're few if any jobs for people left. If one can make an improved "Robby the Robot" that can preform any physical, or mental task, that a human can, then there will be little demand for human labor. Of course "Robby" will probably be many different specialized units, the point is that human labor will be replaced someday. Follow the technology line, it gets steeper with time and shows no signs of leveling off. The only jobs that will be available in such a world will be the ones crafting novelty products that are made by "real human labor", much like handcrafted furnature fills a niche today. Musicians and artist will probably still have jobs as well - the rest of may end up on government cheese in a "socialist liberal utopia" (blech!!).
The thing about automation is that it requires people to monitor and maintain it. Hardware breaks down and needs to be fixed. Monitoring software is still pretty dodgy and requires someone to check on statistics periodically and make adjustments. Patches need to be tested and evaluated before they can be applied in production. Somebody still has to be there to check up on the UPS' sirens. Software still needs to be written (and not all of us software geeks are particularly good with hardware). We are nowhere near the point where people will have no work to do. Your statement also seems to assume that people will not find other things to do. I also do not see why taking on a job which involves the crafting of unique or novel products is such a bad thing...
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This assumes "Robby" does not suffer an error and decides that humans are illogical, innefficient, and must be wiped out.
Other people are quite sufficient to do just this.
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Now here is a scarier thought, and more likely, what happens when a government no longer needs the people to produce for the nation? I can see many powerful governments using the power of the state (and the machines run by the state) to completely control the populace. This would include elimination of any opposition to that government, and even forced reductions in the population - for environmental reasons. A state that no longer needs the consent of the governed would be a very nasty thing.
I do not have a good answer for this. I will need to do more reading on the sociopolitical side of things before I could comment intelligently.
Extrasolar Angel Extrasolar Angel's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
Quote:
I also do not see why taking on a job which involves the crafting of unique or novel products is such a bad thing...
Limited market for that-it will never sustain that many jobs as factory for example. Such a change will thus mean more unemployed people.
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emaughan emaughan's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
Quote:
The thing about automation is that it requires people to monitor and maintain it. Hardware breaks down and needs to be fixed.
At this point in time - yes. I predict - no crystal ball needed - that eventually self improving software will be developed allowing the program to continue self improvement. This is the whole idea behind a singularity event. Once the machines are advanced enough to take care of their own upgrades and maintenance, the need for humans quickly fades. What kind of "economy" will exist when the consumers no longer produce and the producers no long consume (at least not significantly)? The big risk is that in such a society, the ones who control the machines will completely control the populace. It does not matter if it is flesh the controls the machines or machines that control the machines - the potential for loss of freedom is huge. The best case is that control over the machines is highly distributed so no one power base develops. Hope to live in a very libertarian society.
mickykitsune mickykitsune's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
emaughan wrote:
The big risk is that in such a society, the ones who control the machines will completely control the populace. It does not matter if it is flesh the controls the machines or machines that control the machines - the potential for loss of freedom is huge. The best case is that control over the machines is highly distributed so no one power base develops. Hope to live in a very libertarian society.
Old Economy versus New Economy, in EP terms.
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root root's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
root@Singularity and unemployment [hr] I ran across the wikipedia article on anti-work, which is an ethic against working on the basis that work is inherently lacking in utility. More precisely, it speaks about reducing the amount of work that is required from each individual by finding labor-saving methods and better automation. This idea crashes face first into the evidence that increases in automation, optimization, and economic modeling have not only failed to reduce the amount of work expected of members of society, it has increased expectations though forced competition with the automated systems. Why that happens isn't very hard to understand, as it is the classic problem of capital vs labor. The work-saving devices are controlled by the capitalist, so the labor never sees any of the benefits of this efficiency. Other than personal ethics, there is no reason for anyone in control of the means of production to share them with the population as a whole. In fact, speaking in public about sharing the means of production with the masses is met with charges of socialism, wanting a welfare state, of being lazy, a leach off of society, etc, etc. Watch Fox News for five minutes if you are unsure as to what I mean. In Eclipse Phase, the autonomists control their own means of production, so are able to avoid this problem and live in communal happiness in deep space. I am curious about theories on how they managed to get a hold of these nanofacs in the first place. The details of how the autonomists got into space and gained possession of the resources needed to be self-sustaining, let alone compete against the hypercorps, are entirely ignored, which makes all of the outer-system utopias and collectives seem like an fantasy for the politically discontent. I see no viable way for those groups to have established themselves, and no way at all to get there from here.
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nezumi.hebereke nezumi.hebereke's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
I disagree with your second paragraph. Capitalists HAVE shared the value of automation - by depressed prices for goods. 100 years ago a doll requires an investment in time and labor which gave it a substantial value, and even socks were resource-intensive enough to force people to actually repair them. In the modern day, both dolls and socks are produced by automated processes and their price has dropped to the point of being negligible. Automation has reduced the price of things across the board, and made people at every level, from kings to hobos, live at a higher level of luxury than they would otherwise. The result is that a person can work less for the 'same' quality of life (with a few exceptions, such as land, which cannot be mass produced). I can work a part-time job and still have a car, furniture, better TV, clothes and so on comparable to or better than an upper middle class person sixty years ago. Most of us don't compare ourselves to our grandparents though. We compare ourselves to our neighbors - and all of them have also seen rises in their quality of life. If you see someone riding in a car with no seat belts, living with no cell phone in a house with no A/C, using a black and white TV that only gets three channels, you don't recognize that, by 1950 standards, he's doing really well for himself.
emaughan emaughan's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
Quote:
from kings to hobos, live at a higher level of luxury than they would otherwise.
Well put - most of us have little comprehension of just how rough life could be in the "good 'ol days". I think it's a bit funny how many will romantacize the middle ages when it really was nothing but incredible stench, disease, little to no freedoms, ignorance, and bad teeth (the English still carry on this tradition). Having lived in Peru for two years it is quite an eye opener into what real poverty means and just how much the American experiment has succeeded in helping even the poorest in this nation live at a level higher than 87% of the world. Cool web site http://www.globalrichlist.com/ It helps keep things in prospective.
root root's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
root@Singularity and unemployment [hr] Yes, I am aware of how capitalism works. I am not arguing that capitalism hasn't done an excellent job of expanding the world's economy and dropping the price of goods. I am not arguing that the quality of life for many people in the world is significantly better than it was for their ancestors. I am not making an argument for anarchism or socialism as a replacement for our current economic models. We currently live in a scarcity economy, and capitalism has its advantages for optimally distributing resources if you can assume there are no monopolies, and that everyone is a rational agent seeking maximum utility. What I am discussing is that there is no way that I can see for there to be a transition over to a post-scarcity economy, or even an economy where people spend less time working. The amount of labor expected of a worker only ever goes up, and we keep having jobless recoveries after recessions. What I am interested in is why there is no pressure to reduce the amount of work any given employee has to do while providing as many workers as possible with the dignity of employment. What I see is that we currently live in a transitional economy. Scarcity economics hold for energy, raw materials, food and water, and the manufactured goods that we trade. Post-scarcity economics hold for information goods, as the marginal cost models used in scarcity economics do not apply to information. As in, the cost of producing another copy of an information good is nearly nothing, and by its very nature information is very hard to maintain control over. The systems we are developing to handle the information economy is a good model for how everything works when fabricators are available for public use and raw materials, energy, and blueprints are freely available. In Eclipse Phase, the autonomists got off of the planet and took off to the outer system with enough resources to set up a competing economy, despite the fact that space infrastructure was almost entirely in the hands of hypercorporations who had no problem using orbital strikes to deal with rioting and insurrection on Earth. I consider this to be bullshit, which is why this is a science-fiction game, and it is the main flaw that keeps me from seeing a path from our current economic model to the ones the autonomists use.
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nick012000 nick012000's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
All it takes is one cracked nanofabricator or Protean nanohive and you've basically got the seed from which the Anarchist Alliance grew. Exponential growth is funny like that.

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root root's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
root@Singularity and unemployment [hr]
nick012000 wrote:
All it takes is one cracked nanofabricator or Protean nanohive and you've basically got the seed from which the Anarchist Alliance grew. Exponential growth is funny like that.
No doubt. But how does it get cracked in the first? Governments get touchy about people making devices that can cause an economic collapse.
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The Green Slime The Green Slime's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
root wrote:
root@Singularity and unemployment No doubt. But how does it get cracked in the first? Governments get touchy about people making devices that can cause an economic collapse.
There are a few allusions in the main book to the infeasibility of the inner system corps reinforcing their laws/policies in locations as remote as those in the outer system - quite how this is, given the infinite production capacities of nanofabbing, I don't know. But don't empires usually have trouble controlling their farthest colonies where their authority is maintained through simple bluff? I can imagine corporate scrimping and heavily centralised thinking being major factors in fomenting secession. And all it would really take is the defection of a single low-level manager and the leaking of an access code or two for the workers to crack a nanofabber. Provided they're willing to sever all ties with the inner system, their rebellion has worked and they've founded a new kingdom.
root root's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
root@Singularity and unemployment [hr]
The Green Slime wrote:
There are a few allusions in the main book to the infeasibility of the inner system corps reinforcing their laws/policies in locations as remote as those in the outer system - quite how this is, given the infinite production capacities of nanofabbing, I don't know. But don't empires usually have trouble controlling their farthest colonies where their authority is maintained through simple bluff? I can imagine corporate scrimping and heavily centralised thinking being major factors in fomenting secession. And all it would really take is the defection of a single low-level manager and the leaking of an access code or two for the workers to crack a nanofabber. Provided they're willing to sever all ties with the inner system, their rebellion has worked and they've founded a new kingdom.
Given the precondition of having free colonies in the outer system, there is no way for anyone to stop the spread of information about something as valuable as a cracked nanofab, I agree with that fully. The only problem is the staggering expense of getting up the gravity well. How would these original space colonists get out their in the first place? They would have to be employees of the hypercorps and defect from there. That, I see problems with. You don't give your genie lamp to a bunch of anarchists located outside of your control.
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The Green Slime The Green Slime's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
root wrote:
root@Singularity and unemployment How would these original space colonists get out their in the first place? They would have to be employees of the hypercorps and defect from there. That, I see problems with. You don't give your genie lamp to a bunch of anarchists located outside of your control.
Yes I too assumed the first outer system anarchists were originally hypercorp employees, and given the danger and remoteness of the posting, the lowliest employees at that (they had indentures pre-Fall, right?) Much like the colonists of the New World, they were sent far, far away in pursuit of promises that pinched out. Eventually they put their master's tools to a different purpose and seized his plantation for themselves. Only once this first generation had established itself through painful struggle could new habs be set up under their aegis and thus be anarchist from the get-go. So, while you may not necessarily want to send an army of malcontents off to the far rim of fuck-all nowhere with your shiniest genie lamp, you've got shareholders to please, and those kuiper rocks aren't going to mine themselves... Of such managerial mishaps are new societies born!
root root's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
root@Singularity and unemployment [hr] I believe the game comes to the same conclusion, but sending people out with a cornucopia machine is a terrible idea. There are psychological problems people will suffer after a few months where they've been sitting in a tin can far above the world. Anyone in possession of a genie lamp is going to be too cautious about who gets access to it than to let a bunch of people into space who they haven't extensively examined for loyalties.
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The Green Slime The Green Slime's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
Yeah but loyalties on Earth and loyalties out at 55AU ain't necessarily the same thing. Surely the king of Spain had a similar policy of screening for potential conquistadors, and more than a few of them went nutso and disappeared into the bush in search of El Dorado. The outer system anarchists wouldn't even need to go looking for any such mythic riches. They just needed the balls to throw the bosses off their backs and forget about ever going home. In retrospect it can be seen as a bad idea to have sent them out in the first place, but corporations tend to act on bad ideas as a matter of course.
root root's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
root@Singularity and unemployment [hr]
The Green Slime wrote:
Yeah but loyalties on Earth and loyalties out at 55AU ain't necessarily the same thing. Surely the king of Spain had a similar policy of screening for potential conquistadors, and more than a few of them went nutso and disappeared into the bush in search of El Dorado. The outer system anarchists wouldn't even need to go looking for any such mythic riches. They just needed the balls to throw the bosses off their backs and forget about ever going home. In retrospect it can be seen as a bad idea to have sent them out in the first place, but corporations tend to act on bad ideas as a matter of course.
Again, I agree with you in every instance other than this special case. I've been using the allusion of the genie in a lamp, because that is exactly what this would be. Suppose you have Mad Scientist Kerimov, who is an exaggeration of the zero-sum game player, and he wants to be a science emperor. With the science emperor trope, you get extra points if you are both the cause of and salvation to a Singularity. One day while tinkering with his lab, M.S. Kerimov develops what he refers to as The Kudzu. This entity, this The Kudzu, will devour matter and make more of itself very prolifically. Luckily, it only devours what is fed to it, has a diet like a koala bear, and is delightfully loyal to humans. For some unexplainable reason having to do with the unobtanium in the agar, this delicious and nutritious tree grows happy, comfy clothing, and is also a recursively self-improving AGI. Currently, Mad Scientist Kerimov has control over this entity, and is showered with its blessings. He will share this wonderful new invention with the world, but not quite yet. First, he wants to get a sufficient head start, as the economy is about to shift to something else that strongly favors the first person to get there. This is your classic Throne At The Center Of The Universe trope that superheros and demigods are always fighting, so it shouldn't be unfamiliar. Kerimov wants to sit on the Throne first, but not, in his mind, because he intends to rule the world or any of that rot, but because he can't trust the next jerk over with sitting there first. For the sake of this argument, he and another person named KRAKEN EATER OF WORLDS both got their gripping digits on this device at the same time. Now the one that outmaneuvers the other get to sit on the Throne. No fucking way do I send a copy of this out into deep space with a bunch of people crazy enough to want to go into deep space. Therefore, I contend that the anarchists will not be able to crack one of these before it doesn't matter. On a less cartoonish scale, there is the black factory. It is, for all that we care here, a black box that is a factory. Things go in, economies come out. You can make more of them and string them together to make bigger versions that make more of themselves. This is a slower Singularity takeoff than with Kudzu and KEOW vs Mad Scientist Kerimov, so there is sufficient time for the anarchists to try an liberate one. In this case, I would need a very compelling argument as to why anyone would let one of these means of production out of a very tight grip. I expect these to be guarded like nuclear generators, and defended by autonomous agents loyal only to the entity that created it and controllable remotely from that entity's fortress of crazy. If several of them enter the slow part of the curve at the roughly the same time, there is a race to eliminate as many of your enemies as you can before you both become untouchable. During this period you get to pick your eternal enemies. Inside of that scenario, I could see quite a bit of fun roleplaying material. Characters trying to become a players in The Last Game Ever, or finding out about it right at the point of endgame and trying to be the ones who decide how the new world starts. Maybe you can dangle despair in front of them as they watch all of the monsters around them starting to become gods, leaving them to have a game of fighting with TITAN swarms to see who has the honor of dying last. Then, you can pull them out of cold storage in the next scene in a completely alien environment full of transhumanity.
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The Doctor The Doctor's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
root wrote:
No doubt. But how does it get cracked in the first? Governments get touchy about people making devices that can cause an economic collapse.
Probably the same way that lots of very expensive software is cracked and made available using BitTorrent: somebody hacking around with it. In the case of cornucopia machines, I would think that a couple of hackers working late shift for a corporation that used them in manufacturing would have made copies of its documentation to take home and study. From that, it is not much of a jump for them to take one of the units offline "for extended maintenance" so that they could hack around with it and probably figure out how to get it to replicate. Alternatively, once nanofabrication gained a foothold, hackers everywhere would be falling all over themselves to see what they could do with it (how long did it take the Kinect to be made into a general purpose hobbyist's tool? Less than 48 hours?) Disruptive technologies are called that for a reason.
root root's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
root@Singularity and unemployment [hr] Looking at my argument again, it only really makes sense if the first cornucopia machine produces enough to push it's owner to the top of the economy. If it merely produces on the scale of normal production methods, but is flexible enough to produce nearly anything, the argument is silly. In the second case, there is no way for an owner to push their fortune to incredible extents without replicating it and having employees. Once it is the hands of more than one person, it will inevitably get hacked as you describe.
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The Green Slime The Green Slime's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
root wrote:
Again, I agree with you in every instance other than this special case. I've been using the allusion of the genie in a lamp, because that is exactly what this would be. Suppose you have Mad Scientist Kerimov, who is an exaggeration of the zero-sum game player, and he wants to be a science emperor. With the science emperor trope, you get extra points if you are both the cause of and salvation to a Singularity. One day while tinkering with his lab, M.S. Kerimov develops what he refers to as The Kudzu. This entity, this The Kudzu, will devour matter and make more of itself very prolifically. Luckily, it only devours what is fed to it, has a diet like a koala bear, and is delightfully loyal to humans. For some unexplainable reason having to do with the unobtanium in the agar, this delicious and nutritious tree grows happy, comfy clothing, and is also a recursively self-improving AGI. Currently, Mad Scientist Kerimov has control over this entity, and is showered with its blessings. He will share this wonderful new invention with the world, but not quite yet. First, he wants to get a sufficient head start, as the economy is about to shift to something else that strongly favors the first person to get there. This is your classic Throne At The Center Of The Universe trope that superheros and demigods are always fighting, so it shouldn't be unfamiliar. Kerimov wants to sit on the Throne first, but not, in his mind, because he intends to rule the world or any of that rot, but because he can't trust the next jerk over with sitting there first. For the sake of this argument, he and another person named KRAKEN EATER OF WORLDS both got their gripping digits on this device at the same time. Now the one that outmaneuvers the other get to sit on the Throne. No fucking way do I send a copy of this out into deep space with a bunch of people crazy enough to want to go into deep space. Therefore, I contend that the anarchists will not be able to crack one of these before it doesn't matter.
Sound points, though I suspect there may be some vital considerations to the running of a nanofabber that you might be overlooking. Primarily, that the magic genie lamp analogy isn't wholly accurate for the reason that (apologies if I'm totally mistaken here) a nanofabber doesn't really give you anything for free: it only transforms matter. This churns up issues of acquisition and logistical hassles at a geometric rate, because the bigger and crazier your Singularitarian dreams, the more raw material you need to find, extract, ship and feed into the fabber; and while much of this process may be automated, as discussed upthread, automation tends to always involve some degree of corruptible human (or AI?) oversight. And then there's the potentially even more troublesome informational requirements of a 'legit' fabber which, particularly in the copyright-bound culture by which the hypercorps both live and die, could mean staggering license costs per unit produced (tragedy of the anti-commons and all that). So, certainly from the long historical perspective a nanofabber seems like a dead-cert, instantaneous game-winner for whomever happens to obtain one first. But in the high res, day to day world of practicalities it's probably not such a fantastic blessing. It's more likely a massive fucking headache, just like every past invention that's suddenly overturned the status quo, and nobody in a position to exploit it ever properly grasps the full potential of the thing before some other fool has come along and stolen it right out from under him. And of all the possible errors likely to result in the theft of a nanofabber, I see none more suited to committing Every. Single. One than the hypercorps: venal, exploitative, backstabbing, myopic, instituionalised idiots with toddler-level impulse control when it comes to quick profit, and to hell with the long-term. This, I think, is how a gang of miscreants and malcontents at the ass end of the solar system could end up wielding the power of gods. Nanofab is too costly and complex a technology to be invented and deployed by anyone other than a vast, profit-centric, hegemonic, centralised powerbase, but the flip-side of that power -- inflexibility, conventionality, hubris -- is what dooms them to lose out in the revolutionary new order their technologies will create.
emaughan emaughan's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
Quote:
What I am interested in is why there is no pressure to reduce the amount of work any given employee has to do while providing as many workers as possible with the dignity of employment.
Because that employee is trained, shows up to work and is reliable - if not they get replaced. So if you have a worker who works well, it is too your benefit to trust them with more work. Now there is also disadvantages like overtime wages, and too much reliance on a few workers where loosing one could cause a significant disruption. If it were not for all the extra government mandates on businesses for employee insurance and extra benefits, it would in many cases be an advantage to hire more part time workers to spread risk and add flexibility to the company. Some companies do this via temp agencies, but it is better to have in inhouse pool of available workers. Current government policies actually discourage this type of strategy. If the employer has to give the same benefits to two part time workers vs one full time worker - it is less costly to just stick with the one. Second, not all workers are created equal and those that are more reliable and efficient tend to get more work and more opportunities. In my field there were huge shortages of qualified pharamacists which allowed me to get big sign on bonuses and all the overtime I wished. I did not mind the extra work and my employers were greatfull that I did not mind taking on extra shifts. Extra shifts are now much rarer - but because I helped out so much in the past, I still get some of these now prized OT shifts. Third, government continues to give benefits to the unemployed and thus violating an econ 101 principle - you shouldn't reward nonproductivity (Ben Franklin was big on this). There are people out there who could care less about the "nobility of work" as long as they're getting their government cheese. Finally one other point on the "jobless recovery". Having friends who are small business owners, this current administration has made them VERY nervous. They are in a wait and see mode and do not want to make any investments in labor as this administration is making the burden heavier and heavier for businesses to support labor. As Axel also pointed out the uncertaintly is scaring folks who run businesses. History shows that jobs do return after recesions - but sometimes in different fields. This time, however, having a president whose first real job was being president doesn't fill businessmen with much "hope" and wish he would "change" his hostile attituded toward business. They are holding out on capital investment in labor.
root root's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
root@Singularity and unemployment [hr] I agree with you on the incentives that push businesses towards employing fewer and better people. I may not like the current economic situation, but I am not criticizing corporations and small business for the choices they make. They are machines designed for profit and efficiency, and they are very well suited to that task. Companies cannot be asked to be ethical in the same way that sharks cannot be asked to be vegetarian; it violates every reason for their existence. My point is that the incentives of a capitalist economy will continually push more workers out of their positions and into the labor pool as more efficient methods of business are discovered and their skills become redundant. The longer these workers are in the labor pool, the more that their "worth" decreases for businesses as their skills become obsolete or rusty. They have to retrain to stay competitive, which is inherently risky as there is no guarantee that the field they retrain into will still be there by the time their education is complete. Worse, if the worker has to retrain often, they will quickly become overqualified for any position, and won't be able to compete against younger, cheaper, less qualified applicants. As you pointed out, this leads to those who are employed working more, and there are institutional disadvantages to hiring more people to work fewer hours each. Benefits, as you pointed out, are the primary problem. The marginal cost of hiring another (hourly) employee is compared against the cost of adding overtime pay to someone already hired, and often the overtime is cheaper than the cost of benefits, recruitment, training, and team integration. Once again, there is nothing wrong with companies doing this; their only concern is efficiency. Now lets project this into the extremes of a Singularity. The marginal cost of hiring a new employee is going to be compared with the marginal cost of a new computing system and copying an expert system. Since the employee needs to learn the skills over time, and they work more slowly than a computer system, it is cheaper to get the new computer. As more and more of the skills that we think of as being too complicated for computer are solved (Logic Theorist improved on a theorem in the Principia Mathematica in 1956, MYCIN outperformed junior doctors in diagnosing blood infections in the early 1970's, stock traders are steadily being replaced by algorithmic traders now, and we'll find out soon if Jeopardy falls to an AI), even skilled jobs such as positions in engineering, science, and philosophy will start having the problems that less skilled labor currently faces. There is also no reason to suspect that artistic skills won't also be trumped by what a computer can do, so artists, poets, and authors are also in trouble. Pushed to an extreme, no one is employed, and the only people with any assets are the ones who owned the AI systems back when humans still worked. There is something wrong with this, and this leads me to believe that laissez-faire economics will eventually put everyone out of work and won't share any of the benefits of the Singularity. So I'm interested in coming up with systems that work to decrease the amount of work each person does, rather than the average work done per person. Since I believe that capitalism does a good job of distributing resources in scarcity economies (assuming no monopolies and rational agents), I am interested in how to transition from a capitalist economy to a fully socialist economy as the number of economies still ruled by scarcity approach zero. On a side note, the "nobility of work" is bullshit. There is dignity in work when you live in a culture that values work, but I do not believe there is any inherent value to breaking your back from dawn until dusk and never having enough free time to simply enjoy the fact that you are alive. I have found that the homeless and the idle wealthy have more in common with each other than either does with the working classes. They both have a great deal in common with those employed in intellectual fields, and they all contrast blackly with those who are forced to labor in unskilled or semi-skilled positions. Since there are more and more people in this labor pool, the economics push their pay down to as close to the edge of survival as is manageable. The stress of living like this leads to illness, violence, crime, and can be the environmental catalyst that triggers insanity in people at risk for such things. On a side side note, The Green Slime is right on the flaws with my reasoning about fab machines, and the same argument may apply to my reasoning here.
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emaughan emaughan's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
Quote:
My point is that the incentives of a capitalist economy will continually push more workers out of their positions and into the labor pool as more efficient methods of business are discovered and their skills become redundant.
Yes and no. At this point in time, as in the past, there is still a huge potential for jobs in this nation and other advanced nations. What is causing unemployment at this time is a simple reaping of what over regulation and government policies have sown. The future is a different matter. There will come a time when machine intelligence and manufacturing becomes so advanced that more and more workers will be pushed out. When this has happened in the past, there has always been new demands in other areas for workers. Technology simple caused shifts of labor from one sector to another. This will not always be the case - the machines will reach a point where they can do just about everything that a human can do at a much lower cost. In first world countries, where individual freedom is valued and protected, this could lead to a libertarian utopia with government playing a small role. "Cost" would be limited to raw materials and land - the only real limiting factors at this point. Energy and "stuff" would essentially be free. How raw materials and land will be distributed in a society where work is no longer needed or available to most - that is a good question. In first world countries where individual freedom is not well valued I could see an extreme form of socialism emerge where people are allocated all there needs and some of their wants through the state. Individual freedoms would be limited and life would be much like living in a guilded cage. All other nations where the goverment is dictatorial - this could be hell. The people are no longer needed. Those that rule would be able to not only get rid of all opposition, but even those that supported them if they weren't close enough to the "in" crowd. This would free up more land and materials for the ruling elites to have the whole nation as their own private play ground. At this time nations need their citizens - this some day will change.
emaughan emaughan's picture
Re: Singularity and unemployement
duplicat post - so sorry.

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