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The terror of the Kessler Syndrome!

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Zoombie Zoombie's picture
The terror of the Kessler Syndrome!
I was thinking of this while I was writing a novel - not a transhuman one, but rather a hard SF young adult warstory in the vein of Ender's Game meets Full Metal Jacket. But the basic concept is that it's all taking place in Earth orbit after some idiots blew up the space elevator and started a...KESSLER SYNDROME! Hehe, I love saying that. Basically, it's when you have an orbital collision, it makes the next one infinitely more likely as debris spread out around the impact and hit other orbital stations and so on and so on. So. During the Fall, loads of ships got scragged in high and low orbits. Their debris still halo the Earth. At that point, it makes me ask...why do you even NEED kill-sats?! Falling into a gravity well through a bunch of debris means you have a huge chance of getting clocked at a screw going a million miles an hour and you're toast. Going up is even worse. That's the main concept of my story, that the spacers can't get down from orbit and the Earthers can't get up into orbit...and that's with debris that are only a fraction of what the Fall put into Earth's orbit. But we have people going too and from the Earth. I know they can use the surviving beanstalk, but what about people mentioned in sunward who go the fast way? And how would you go about clearing such a debris field? I need to know this for two reasons. One, for my book. Two, for my reclaimer character who thinks the best starting point would be clearing up Earth's orbit so we can revitalize the orbital economy and provide a stepping stone for later terraforming.
CodeBreaker CodeBreaker's picture
Re: The terror of the Kessler Syndrome!
Say the debris field was so thick that it was impossible to make it down the conventional way, i.e using the incredibly advanced computation abilities of EP level AI to map my way down. The way I would probably do it is steal a fairly large asteroid from Mars-Jovian field (I forget what it is called...) and just ride it down. Depend on using it as a shield and just ram my way through the debris. If you have the resources I guess you could release a massive swarm of Protean nanobots and have them gather up all the debris into giant blocks of material to boost off towards Luna.
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Zoombie Zoombie's picture
Re: The terror of the Kessler Syndrome!
Hmm...would the nano be able to travel between the debris? I mean, orbit is still in spitting range when it comes to space, but it's still huge distances. And how would you get up after riding the asteroid down?
OneTrikPony OneTrikPony's picture
Re: The terror of the Kessler Syndrome!
I don't know that the debrise field is all that thick. You've had 10 years for random orbits to decay, and for the objects in stable orbits to collect each other, and scrappers have been conducting salave ops for that long too. There's still allot of working stations in the various orbits inhabited by hundreds of thousands of people. The five listed sofar are; Elegua, (HEO), 120,000 people, VoNguyn (Geo), 100,000+ people, Vishnukam (?), 10,000 + people Shenlong, (MEO), ? people In addition there are multiple Tincan stations and smaller torus. You can assume that by now they've managed to at least clear their own orbital paths and provide enough clear space that they can be easily serviced by shuttles from the moon and lagrange stations. I think it's likely that LEO is still a mess but the killsats have probably been gradually clearing that space.

Mea Culpa: My mode of speech can make others feel uninvited to argue or participate. This is the EXACT opposite of what I intend when I post.

Extrasolar Angel Extrasolar Angel's picture
Re: The terror of the Kessler Syndrome!
OneTrikPony wrote:
There's still allot of working stations in the various orbits inhabited by hundreds of thousands of people.
Actually-3 million combined alltogether from the hundreds of smaller habitats. Sunward page 63.
[I]Raise your hands to the sky and break the chains. With transhumanism we can smash the matriarchy together.[/i]
Arenamontanus Arenamontanus's picture
Re: The terror of the Kessler Syndrome!
The Kessler syndrome is a cool phenomenon. I actually had my players accidentally trigger it in a past campaign when they didn't check the cargo of their Orion rocket carefully enough. However, it is not able to prevent space access. When things collide and break up they tend to remain in their original orbits, with a bit of extra spread. In the aforementioned Orion case, we got a nasty debris ring (or rather, torus) along the orbit of the rocket and everything it hit. Junk in very eccentric orbits tend to fall into the atmosphere. Also, the density of junk is very low. If you spread out a big object like the ISS along its orbit in gram-sized pieces there would be one every eight meter. Assume the width of the debris torus was 10 kilometres and you would get one piece per 12 million cubic kilometres! Even taking into account that they sweep by fast, just going through this volume once will not have a high risk. The problem is that anything *staying* in the volume is going to get hit sooner or later and suffer a cascade. But it takes a while. Also, the higher you go, the more space there is and the less effective the cascade becomes: above a few thousand kilometres I think it does not happen over realistic timescales at all, if I remember Kessler's papers right. The killsats are needed because it is relatively easy to make something that is lucky enough, armoured enough or has lidar/point defences enough to get through the field. That said, Kessler cascades are no laughing matter in EP. Consider what would happen if a O'Neill colony broke up over Mars. There is so much expensive and vital infrastructure there that it would be a major all-hands-on-deck situation. Shooting down debris is hard.
Extropian
Zen Shooter Zen Shooter's picture
Re: The terror of the Kessler Syndrome!
Canon doesn't address this issue, but one might suppose that a spacefaring civilization that includes many artificial satellites orbiting several planets and moons has developed a solution. Dissassembler nanites? Automated lasers? Futuretech handwavium?
Rhyx Rhyx's picture
Re: The terror of the Kessler Syndrome!
Or you could do like in the anime Planetes and actually have spacefaring garbage collectors who's sole job it is to pick up and process debris that could be a hazard to orbital installations before it makes it to the atmosphere or anywhere else dangerous.
Arenamontanus Arenamontanus's picture
Re: The terror of the Kessler Syndrome!
Zen Shooter wrote:
Canon doesn't address this issue, but one might suppose that a spacefaring civilization that includes many artificial satellites orbiting several planets and moons has developed a solution. Dissassembler nanites? Automated lasers? Futuretech handwavium?
Actually, many spacecraft in EP likely have pretty good shielding. I winced when I read that Phelan's Recourse moved through Saturn's rings - that means a high probability of being impacted by heavy ice blocks moving at railgun speeds. You better get your Whipple shields and point defence systems running well before you try that stunt. Many space installations deal with minor fragments just by being tough: it is not too hard in EP to make a pretty good micrometeor defense. And with the laser technology you can detect and shoot down many minor fragments. Nanites are in themselves not very useful (requires physical contact, metabolizes slowly etc) but you can make extensive "mops" made out of tough fibers that gathers up junk in orbits you want to clean. Having scavenger and trash collector crews makes sense for the bigger stuff. A meter-large piece of hull is not going to vaporize nicely (you are likely to get plenty of fragments), you need to send a disposable booster to stick onto it and send it into a graveyard or burn orbit. The worst problem is derelict habitats: they do not belong to anybody, pose an ablation and traffic hazard, it costs plenty of effort to move them, yet there is nobody directly willing to pay to get rid of them. That is where most scavenger firms make the most money... and end up in deadly adventures (c.f. http://www.aleph.se/EclipsePhase/Wanderlust%20Station.pdf for Fernweh, a cycler that everybody agrees ought to be removed, yet it has not happened yet). Just after the Fall the orbit cleaners likely had their heyday around many planets. These days the markets are drying up, they are getting desperate and start to look at things they wisely left alone back when they could choose their business.
Extropian
Arenamontanus Arenamontanus's picture
Re: The terror of the Kessler Syndrome!
Just noticed this video advertising Lockheed Martin's Space Fence concept: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7SJdN90vT04&feature=player_embedded Some nice graphics there that might inspire gaming. Of course, these displays show the good old days when there were just hundreds of thousands of objects to track... The Martian counterpart of that imagined control room would be a vast simspace run by a team of very competent AGIs and transhumans, running hundreds of infomorphs and AIs on the task of keeping track of anything anywhere close to Mars. Imagine the complexity when a comet fragment sweeps through their space. Adventure idea: the villains (or PCs!) set up an attack somewhere months ahead by launching various pieces of debris on trajectories carefully designed to overload the defenses - you can hit 90% of them, but there will always be a set that hits the sensitive installations. Or they blind the fence sensors at a strategic moment so something can slip through.
Extropian
root root's picture
Re: The terror of the Kessler Syndrome!
root@The terror of the Kessler Syndrome! [hr] There is always this trick. It wouldn't be able to bleed very much kinetic energy off of any given particle in any given time interval on a useful scale for point defense, but for a long-term recovery effort it would be just the thing. Place a few hundred of these in a grid around the planet and have them run off of passive solar energy collection, and presto, a few hundred years later the orbit is safe. Of course, you are going to be fighting with killsats and everyone else for stable orbital zones around the planet to place your grid, but that's the fun part.
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