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Rep decay and stability

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Arenamontanus Arenamontanus's picture
Rep decay and stability
This post may be a bit of mathematical overkill applied to a simple idea. I'll start with the basic concept, and then run off into mathland to eventually arrive at some possible game system. Does rep decay over time? I couldn't find it in the rules but it would make a lot of sense in real world terms. Also, otherwise old people would have much more rep than young people simply by having accumulated it. So it would make sense to have rep drop if a character was not interacting with a network. Conversely, how much rep can you get by doing ordinary work? A character in my game with 0 @-rep who arrived at Phelan's Recourse immediately logged onto the local equivalent to the Mechanical Turk and started doing trivial favors, earning some rep. What rep would he end up with if he kept this up indefinitely? A simple model is to assume that rep decays with a constant rate 1/T (where T is the time constant, the time it takes for it to go down to 37%), and you do a favour that increases your rep with R L times a day. In the time between favors your rep declines exponentially as r(t) = r0 exp(-t/T) where r0 is your initial rep. In a steady state situation at time 1/L you finish your latest favor and get R rep, balancing the decline from the last favor: r0 exp(-1/LT) + R = r0, which gives us an equilibrium rep of r0 = R / (1-exp(-1/LT)). An approximation (valid if LT is big) is r0 ~= RLT. That is, your equilibrium rep is proportional to the sizes of your services, how often you do them and how slowly they are forgotten. This makes sense (and might even be taken as pretty obvious). However, should you do a few big services or many small ones? Looking at the time it takes to do a service it seems to grow exponentially with the level. That makes the rate L you can perform the service decrease exponentially with favour size. So unless either the reputation reward R or the time constant increases exponentially with the level of the favour, the road to rep-riches is to do trivial things a lot. This is unlikely to work. Having exponential rewards works, but there is something strange with the idea that people will remember me saving the planet about as long as they remember that I opened the door for them. Instead (again, perhaps obviously) large favours should be remembered longer than small ones (they should have larger T). How long should we remember big favours? The time it takes to do them and their refresh rate both are approximately exponential, and if the time constant is proportional to one of them we get a nicely balanced situation. Now small and big favours contribute about equally: if I do trivial favours all the time or if I build a habitat every few months, in both cases I end up with roughly the same equilibrium reputation. The only difference is due to how rapidly R increases with the favor level. The rules in the rez section suggest a simple linear increase. This at first did not make sense to me: the player characters had saved the Saturn system from a seed AI, and they just got 8 rep points?! But this is actually pretty balanced. If reputation from big services decays more slowly than trivial services, its real value lies in its *stability* rather than how much it pushes your rep upwards. The trivial favours guy will lose all his stored rep if he ever lets up, while the system-saver can relax and look for other interesting things to do. A rep system that also awards enormous rep to high-level favours would create a nearly immobile "upper class" of people who have done something very good. I have done various simulations of characters doing various mixtures of small and big favours, and the linear reward seems to have several nice properties: it is flexible (high rep people that stop doing things will eventually lose rep), it is fairly egalitarian (no gaps between classes of people) and there are rewards of doing big and meaningful things. I haven't thrown the maths at it, but no doubt a financial mathematician could have fun with a bit of stochastic differential equations and portfolio theory here. The lunar banks definitely do, and rake in profits from it. Obviously it is not possible to run this kind of detail in the game itself (my players draw the line at differential equations as part of the house rules - yes, it is true!). So getting back to actual game system, it seems that one could have a decay rate of rep based on its level. If a character is not doing anything with a network their rep there should drop by 1 per (refresh time) x 3 or so. However, this might make very low reps rather unstable (blink, there went your 10 points in e-rep!). So maybe a gameplay compromise would be to have a lower decay rate of 1 point per month or so. Perhaps one could even "park" one's rep by contacting a reputation manager who slows the decay by maintaining people's memories of past services. I guess the moral is that the rep score hides an *enormous* complexity. EP rep is like PageRank, academic citation indices, Slashdot Karma points, mathematical finance and IOUs rolled into one, maintained by an infrastructure that has evolved over decades under the watchful eyes of experts, activists and gamblers. One should not take the actual number as anything but game mechanics (although there are no doubt many ways of visualizing rep scores elegantly or succinctly). But as this little essay shows, by tuning the system differently you can produce very different social outcomes.
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Iv Iv's picture
Re: Rep decay and stability
From what I have read in the forums, I think EP's authors are aware that the rep system has some problems (if nothing else, it probably suffers a huge inflation) but that it is sufficient for gaming purposes. On a theoretical note, I agree, a reputation system should have a normalized scale like IQ has. In the end if the system is prone to inflation, it ends up as being perceived as a decay. Or one could simply admit that inflation is not that bad. In ten years, everyone will be around 200 in rep and a trivial favor will cost 10, but who cares ? As long as you still get a free one every hour...
Arenamontanus Arenamontanus's picture
Re: Rep decay and stability
If there is inflation in raw rep scores, that is equivalent to everyone losing a small percentage of rep over time. This is also a reason for people in a rep economy to call in favours relatively soon rather than wait. Rep inflation also allows interesting arbitrage and even speculation. "Locus @-rep is undervalued, so we are asking our operatives to shift their g-rep IOUs into @-rep. We expect a 4% profit. If your network helps, we could leverage this even more."
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Sepherim Sepherim's picture
Re: Rep decay and stability
Hm, I thought rep varied from 0 to 100, thus it could not be inflated beyond that, no? In any case, I do believe that decay is a good idea. I'm not sure if all those mathematical rules are really necessary, though. I'd probably use some way to keep it simpler, like losing one point per month in all your reps, or something like it.
Iv Iv's picture
Re: Rep decay and stability
Arenamontanus wrote:
"Locus @-rep is undervalued, so we are asking our operatives to shift their g-rep IOUs into @-rep."
How would one do that ?
standard_gravity standard_gravity's picture
Re: Rep decay and stability
Arenamontanus wrote:
If there is inflation in raw rep scores, that is equivalent to everyone losing a small percentage of rep over time. This is also a reason for people in a rep economy to call in favours relatively soon rather than wait.
This is one of the problems with rep: it has only a vague connection to the real economy as it's a monetisation of favours. Rep decaying over time is a good idea and makes a lot of sense. However, the question of whether it is inflation in the rep economy has to do also with rep "prices" and the total amout of rep in the system. What characterises inflation in monetary economies is that the amount of money is increased (or the market value of money is lowered due to low interest rates) -> each monetary unit loses value -> prices go up. If rep would decay over time, prices would in fact increase and there would be deflationary pressures (assuming the total amount of rep does not fluctuate for other reasons).
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Sepherim Sepherim's picture
Re: Rep decay and stability
I've decided that all my players will lose 2 points in all their reps per month. That means they have to do a minimum of one low favor each month to remain where they wereand improve their position from then on. I've commented it with them and they too find it a simple and useful way of representing decay without the need for a complex formula. Since I will be doing a barrier in rep gain too (they receive 1 less point of rep each time they receive rep for each level of favor they can ask, thus a person that can ask an excellent favor would receive 5 less each time) it actually means that they will have to do bigger favors to keep their higher reps (people expect more from them) and less for those that are lower (they expect less), which sounds pretty reasonable.
Axel the Chimeric Axel the Chimeric's picture
Re: Rep decay and stability
Someone proposed a system to correct the whole "small favours over time", namely by having certain favours/infractions only working to raise or lower your rep at a given level. Some schlub who only works a regular job 9-5 and does little else will earn their way up to a certain point (about 30 was the level given in the model) but nothing more. I also agree that Rep should fall gradually with time, as favours done in the past become worth less. I have no idea how to represent this properly in game terms, though, as the players likely do favours that will not be forgotten over the span of the game
CodeBreaker CodeBreaker's picture
Re: Rep decay and stability
Axel the Chimeric wrote:
Someone proposed a system to correct the whole "small favours over time", namely by having certain favours/infractions only working to raise or lower your rep at a given level. Some schlub who only works a regular job 9-5 and does little else will earn their way up to a certain point (about 30 was the level given in the model) but nothing more. I also agree that Rep should fall gradually with time, as favours done in the past become worth less. I have no idea how to represent this properly in game terms, though, as the players likely do favours that will not be forgotten over the span of the game
That was mine. In play it works quite well, but the Fanzine has a better version in layout that might get itself into the first issue. It has the addition of slow rep decay, as well as a more effecient means of calculating rep gains/losses than my initial one.
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nezumi.hebereke nezumi.hebereke's picture
Re: Rep decay and stability
Arenamontanus wrote:
Does rep decay over time?
Rep decays based on distance - distance in time, or social distance. Distance in time is a function of one's personal timeline. Someone who is in accelerated space will seem to recall favors as being further in the past than they really are, so if your favors fail to keep up with their perception of time, you'll suffer rep degradation with that person. EP seems to run, overall, on normal time, so that's not a huge issue. But in general, if someone does me a favor today, I owe him a favor tomorrow. In ten years, it's less of a favor - I don't emotionally owe him anything, I'm just doing it so I feel, to myself, like I'm being fair. And in fifty years it's more of a 'yeah, I remember you. Sure, for old time's sake.' Your reputation for a favor never drops to 0, assuming there is a memory of you. You'll always have some little piece of it. If someone you knew from high school came by to your retirement party, you'd still give him favors. Social distance is a comparison between 'the number of people I can keep track of' vs. 'the number of people I am currently keeping track of'. I can only keep track of so many people (and care about them). That's a biological limitation that's being overcome by technology. Anyone with an ecto will immediately know who anyone else is - they get that person's mesh info, and it likely tracks connections. So their social capacity is increased. A synergist has an even greater social capacity, because they actually feel that other person's thoughts, feelings and drives, even if they've never met before, so they are immediately emotionally intimate. So cultures with the fewest socially enabling implants have the greatest barrier to building up rep (it's harder to be remembered), and those with the greatest implants have the lowest barrier. The second function is basically one of size. If we're on a habitat of 5, we all basically have a rep of 100 with one another, because, well, that's it (rep of 100 or 0, if we hate each other). But in the big city, where there are literally a million other people, those other people crowd me out and create a competition for rep. Thanks to the mesh, that crowd is now bigger, and follows you where-ever you go. There are other barriers to social distance too - cultural, species and ideological gaps, for instance, which mark one member as 'other'. Thanks to ectos tracking your rep in a community, social distance may reduce your rep with an individual, but it should never drop below 0, as long as that individual is a member of that same community (and barring extraneous factors). So in either case, social distance or time, a given favor may lose value, but it will never drop to 0. I would tend to go with a rule of 2s. In one week, your most recent rep increase loses half its value, as you're now old news. At 1 month, another half, at 1 year another half, at 10 years another half, at 100 years another half and so on. Or you can look at that in reverse - if you get rep for a mission, you assume that's pretty stable as your '1 year' level. If you spend that same rep today, it's worth 4x that value. Yes, an old person who has gone on safaris in Africa, served in the Space Legion, fought the TITANs, rescued a habitat, and beat a Factor at backgaman will have more rep than some wet-behind-the-ears youngin. That history will never lose all value. But it won't be worth as much as when it was new and poingnant.
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Conversely, how much rep can you get by doing ordinary work? A character in my game with 0 @-rep who arrived at Phelan's Recourse immediately logged onto the local equivalent to the Mechanical Turk and started doing trivial favors, earning some rep. What rep would he end up with if he kept this up indefinitely?
I would argue that the first favor you do for the habitat at a certain level is the one that sticks out the most. The second is worth less, and so on and so forth. it's just how the mind works. So I'd say you can probably only get a certain number of rep points for each level favor per week.
Quote:
A simple model is to assume that rep decays with a constant rate 1/T (where T is the time constant, the time it takes for it to go down to 37%), and you do a favour that increases your rep with R L times a day. In the time between favors your rep declines exponentially as r(t) = r0 exp(-t/T) where r0 is your initial rep. In a steady state situation at time 1/L you finish your latest favor and get R rep, balancing the decline from the last favor: r0 exp(-1/LT) + R = r0, which gives us an equilibrium rep of r0 = R / (1-exp(-1/LT)). An approximation (valid if LT is big) is r0 ~= RLT. That is, your equilibrium rep is proportional to the sizes of your services, how often you do them and how slowly they are forgotten.
I agree with the first point, not with the second. A person who manages to do five million trivial favors a second doesn't get one million rep - he gets forgotten. I mean, think about Santa Claus, who does a Moderate favor for everyone in the world every year - yet his rep is lower even among his chosen demographic than pop singers, who do a few big bangs and just market it to death. I think one thing your calculations are missing also is a numerical value for favors. By both your and my figuring, a favor will never be reduced to 0. However, you seem to assume that all favors are worth 1. If a trivial favor is worth 1, a low worth 2, a moderate worth 4, etc. each higher level favor takes longer to degrade to the level of a lesser favor.
mickykitsune mickykitsune's picture
Re: Rep decay and stability
I think we had similar but disconnected ideas at around the same time, and approached it from different directions. http://www.eclipsephase.com/reputation-curve
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Arenamontanus Arenamontanus's picture
Re: Rep decay and stability
Great minds often think alike, or something like that. Actually, rep decay is also interesting when considering infamous or old characters: just how long do you have to hide until most people have forgotten about the Incident or your once important research on Martian landslides? Faded characters can be so fun to add to the game. "Now back in the day, the MTO had not even started mining comets and it was run as a franchise by the Chinese Department of Martian Infrastructure. So we took the funding from the AHF - you will not have heard about the Front, they and the other ubercons went under in the election of 80' - and set out with our fission ship. We managed to snag one long-periodic comet and bring it in right under their nose. For half of the trip - this took two years - we were not certain on whether we were involved in wildcat terraforming or were doing megascale WMD terrorism. The Chinese navy were not certain either, and began to scramble a cruiser... it never came to that, but for a while we were seriously planning for digging into the core and use it as a fortress. When the MTO and CDMI caved in, we were heroes to half of the world. But try looking up the C2018 Incident today, and you get some kind of bird rock band. They didn't even take the name from our adventure, they took it from the computer game based on it!"
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Unity Unity's picture
Re: Rep decay and stability
Depends on how often people keep bringing the incident up, I suppose.
petros petros's picture
Re: Rep decay and stability
As others have said, Rep is really more of a game mechanic, like a wealth level, than a real thing in-setting. I like to think of it as a useful metric parsed by your Muse, using it's data on your friends, and their friends, and their friends and on and on, your fame, and the fame of your friends, and the number and type of favors you are owed, and by who. The wealthy are those who have a very large, well connected, and highly skilled circle of friends. Especially if they are at the center of this group. This does take significant upkeep to maintain. And not dumb work either, you have to actually get along and keep in touch with scores of people. You get the advantage of being able to call on them for favors, of any size, often at no explicit cost of a favor in return. These people may not be known outside their circle, but they can have significant, and clandestine, influence on things far beyond this circle. Thanks to six degrees of separation, this kind of wealth counts quite far, though. If you need something in a foreign habitat, you might not know anyone there, but you are more likely to know someone who knows someone there. They are also those who are famous, or infamous. People who never met them recognise them, or know them by reputation, for whatever reason. This requires some work to establish, but lingers without much effort. Sometimes things just happen so people gain fame without any apparent reason or effort on their part. And other times all the PR and memetic engineering one can afford amount to nothing. It's like fame now, doing something great helps a lot, but isn't necessary or sufficient to get some fame. You get to call on as many minor favors as you need, in places where you are known. Things like a couch to crash on, or reservations at a restaurant, or some small work of art, and so on. You can also wrangle larger favors easily, but you are usually expected to pay them back. Or they could just be favor-mongers. People come to them to get things done, and they get a favor in return. By gaming these favors, they can come out way ahead. This is not always sketchy, but the favor-mongers who aren't crooked are in the minority. There are a few ways that they ensure people pay up when the times comes. Usually favors are only asked to do illegal or embarrassing things, and so meetings are recorded as blackmail. And if this threat to reputation doesn't work, harassment, from DDOS on their mesh address to actual physical assault, usually does. They get to call on a lot of favors from a lot of people, big or small. But it requires a very calculating mind, to keep track of all the angles and get ahead. And if they aren't owed anything in this habitat, they're out of luck, since they often have no publicly available vetting based on their fame or friends list. Naturally, everyone does a bit of everything. You might have a decent circle of friends, be quite popular among players of a particular game in simulspace, and have a handful of favors left over from your time working in traffic control on Venus. And if I were to try and simulate this, I would probably compress it down to a single Rep score as well. But as others have said, big favors are just different from small favors, and fame is different from friendship.
bblonski bblonski's picture
Re: Rep decay and stability
I think of a rep system more like a 5 star rating than currency. When you ask for a favor, you get a low rating and when you do a favor, you get a high rating. Your rep score is determined factoring in the average rating with the number of ratings you receive. I can't really describe it better than the link below, so give that a read. http://www.evanmiller.org/how-not-to-sort-by-average-rating.html The more votes you receive, the less each vote is worth, but the less votes you have, the lower your score. This helps prevent (but does not stop) people from abusing the system. Since the math to find the Wilson score confidence interval is not practical for gameplay, we just add or subtract some arbitrary number and glaze over then math. This abstraction is representing dozens, hundreds, or even thousands of votes you receive that then affect your average rating. It's pretty much like credit scores we've got now. If you abuse credit, you score goes down, but if you don't use credit you don't have much of a score either. You have to use credit responsibly to get a good credit score. Bad credit does eventually fall off, but I have no idea how to represent this in game.
crizh crizh's picture
Re: Rep decay and stability
Could you not also postulate actions that result in Rep that slowly snowballs over time rather than decaying? Alan Turing's Rep score was piss poor just before his death but over time the impact of his actions and the importance of his work has caused his score to steadily improve over time. Often events don't have any immediate significance, are actively kept secret or are geographically obscure, it is only the passage of time that causes the vast majority of society to acknowledge them as worthy of praise. Rate of decay would also be an issue. It's relatively easy to hype stuff so that it has a tremendous impact immediately and everybody knows your name but fifteen minutes later you've been forgotten, drowned out by the noise of whatever the hype machine is selling today.
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