I've spent a lot of time researching alternative energy, and frankly, none of them seem to be a particularly viable alternative to petroleum.
Putting aside my paranoid fantasies that somebody somewhere has already figured out cold fusion and is making petrol out of air and water, the only thing that seems even remotely viable is solar, and even then it could only maintain our current transportation infrastructure at a mere sustenance level, forcing us to scale back and making any future expansion impossible.
I keep hoping that I have severely underestimated the amount of oil deposits left on earth, because frankly the shoulder shrugs given by most officials in this regard give me the willies. We seem completely unprepared to deal with this problem and our officials seem completely unconcerned with it. I wish I could share their optimism, but without any data to support it, I don't see what there is to be smiling about.
But hey, we'll figure something out, right? Some last minute plan that we pull out of our ass and save the day with? After all, we always do.
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So... Are we doomed?
Sun, 2016-03-20 04:58
#1
So... Are we doomed?
Sun, 2016-03-20 11:24
#2
If only...
If only we had a scalable, reliable, land-dense, carbon-free power source that could run 24/7 without interruption, had such a stellar safety record that you could count the accidents on one hand, and had enough fuel reserves to run the world for thousands of years.
Oh wait, we do. We've had it since the 50's and it already supplies 10% of the world's power with just 400 power plants.
—
End of line.
Sun, 2016-03-20 12:05
#3
If mandatory fuel recycling
If mandatory fuel recycling would become a thing nuclear would be a very viable option.
As for existing oil deposits, there are still substantial reserves the problem with them is that they are either incredibly hard to refine like shale oil or they are buried twice or more deep than the deposits we currently exploit.
Sun, 2016-03-20 13:37
#4
Traditional fusion also
Traditional fusion also stands a chance: less radioactive byproducts than fission, with much less need for isolation of power plants and radioactive materials to begin the reaction.
Sun, 2016-03-20 18:19
#5
Downside: has never been
Downside: has never been successfully make to produce power. Doesn't seem likely to any time soon.
When it comes to transportation is probably net-zero algae or plant derived fuels, like Boeing is working on. Green hydrocarbons are pretty much the only safe option for air travel at least, until batteries have a much greater energy density fossil fuels. It's probably similar for shipping, but I've seen some weird options there, like a return of sails or solar ships.
Sun, 2016-03-20 18:23
#6
One of the weird variants I
One of the weird variants I got into a conversation about was a variant on nuclear power. Thorium reactors. Thorium has a very swift half life which makes it save to even use in combat operations as a power source, however it is incredibly rare and that swift halflife creates a logistics problem. however they can have tremendous output per volume of reactor.
Sun, 2016-03-20 20:43
#7
Trappedinwikipedia wrote
Fusion is probably a few years away, sure, but it's well within the whole doomsday timeline. Even if there's no magical breakthrough, there are already functioning near-break even fusion devices, and small efficiency improvements can lead to break-even or productive fusion. We'll probably have a working fusion reactor by 2020, although commercial adoption may wait until a while after that because it might not be cost-effective by then.
Mon, 2016-03-21 02:41
#8
I'm fairly skeptical that we
I'm fairly skeptical that we'll have a better than breakeven fusion reactor in the next four years. There might be a working design by then, but a lot of big reactors just aren't going to come online by then. Maybe one of the private startups will break through though, I don't know their construction timetables at all. I'd push fusion back to the 2040s or 2050s when the next generation of reactors start up.
I'd like to be wrong, and I'm not exactly following the field with exceptional focus, but that's my semi-educated guess.
Mon, 2016-03-21 03:33
#9
I mean, even if we get fusion
I mean, even if we get fusion soon, it's not going to make a huge difference; the price of electricity won't go down until there's significant adoption of it (since it is essentially free energy), and there's a lot of things we don't rely on electricity for: my house still has a direct gas line, for instance, for utilities. This is the 21st century: I want my flying car and electric water heater, but nooooo.
Mon, 2016-03-21 09:44
#10
Sure we're doomed, but for entirely different reasons...
Maybe, but the science is progressing fairly dependably. It's not a question of If but When we can get it working.
I... question your sources. Green power has a lot of potential for growth and advancement – we've really only begun to scratch the surface, whilst hydrocarbons have been subject to centuries of development.
That said, even if you're correct it's not as bleak as it seems.
Modern technology is getting better with efficiency, but modern society is really bad at it.
We release MW of fuel into the environment unused because we don't recognize it for what it is, we don't consolidate industries to take advantage of otherwise wast material/heat, we loose even more power to faulty equipment – hell, we still use AC to transfer power from the generating stations to where it's used.
Shifting away from Hydrocarbon power is important (I'll mention why in your other thread), but even if we keep using it there's a lot of room for expansion simply by altering how we organize ourselves.
We seem completely unprepared to deal with this problem and our officials seem completely unconcerned with it.
This is the real problem. Both the people in "power" and the public have a view on "Green" tech which is counterproductive.
It's not even the back and forth over environmental issues per se, rather that people seem to operate under the assumption that it's a yes/no issue. Using green energy and fossil fuels needn't be mutually exclusive.
We should use green energy in the industries and locations it makes sense to, and save hydrocarbons for the areas where they're most useful.
—
In the past we've had to compensate for weaknesses, finding quick solutions that only benefit a few.
But what if we never need to feel weak or morally conflicted again?
Sun, 2016-03-27 08:18
#11
Are you talking about nuclear fission?
Because, ah, I mean I hate to sound like a wet blanket, but... I think at the very least you may be overstating your case.
Sun, 2016-03-27 08:36
#12
Fusion & Fission
We've been saying cold fusion is "just around the corner" for about 50 years now. To date, it is my understanding that all nuclear fission plants require Uranium, and that Uranium production requires rich deposits (which are as rare if not rarer than fossil fuels) and at least 20 years of lead time during the refining process.
Most breeder reactors still require uranium, and tend to produce byproducts that can not currently be used as fuel but have military applications such as plutonium which is used in modern hydrogen bombs as a catalyst for nuclear fusion.
Fission also has the problem of nuclear waste, with the Yucca Mountain Depository on its way towards being full of toxic fuel rods which will remain radioactive for thousands of years. Fuel Rod Reprocessing is also a very dirty process which causes quite a bit of pollution on its own.
I don't have anything against nuclear power, but again, it is dependent on a finite resource and nuclear fusion is anything but a sure bet right now. It would not surprise me if buried under a mile of patents, classified documents and a several miles of underground stonework there is a working nuclear fusion reactor, but if there is, whoever owns it doesn't seem like they are sharing and has no interest in going public with it. (Which honestly may not be something we will ever truly be ready for, since the only thing scarier than a nuclear holocaust is a nuclear holocaust with an unlimited supply of nuclear weapons)
Sun, 2016-03-27 08:48
#13
As an Aside
I guess the lesson here is really isn't about the technology, as what we have is "viable" in the sense that if we had a completely autocratic state we would have several viable alternatives, its more that politics and human nature prevent us from making those changes.
Sun, 2016-03-27 09:22
#14
Some Research
So, i did some "research" on wikipedia, and this is what i found:
U-235 is made by enriching Uranium Ore
Pu-239 is made from U-238
U-233 is made from Th-232
The first two I was already familiar with. The third seems promising. I am curious regarding the Oak Ridge experiment and how successful the initial testing was, and why the results seem to have yet to be duplicated.
The reason I tend to promote solar is that a solar panel produces more energy over its lifetime than is consumed in order to make one. You could, in effect, have a factory powered by solar panels, manufacturing solar panels, that produces solar panels faster than it requires you to replace the ones it is currently using.
However, solar is land intensive, time-dependent, and climate dependent. Being able to supply power to polar regions and places where weather or climate prevents solar power from being a viable alternative would certainly go a long way towards providing for our sustainability.
Sun, 2016-03-27 10:02
#15
What is it with humans and dictators
Democracy is the worst form of government, except for all the others.
(Technically all modern, successful governments arr republics but I won't let that get in the way of a good Churchill quote)
It is disappointing how quick some people are to assume autocracy would solve their problems. Because clearly the dictator would have all the same opinions you do, and of course all of those opinions are correct. What could go wrong?
Like I said earlier (though it might have been in the other thread), nuclear doesn't have to last forever. It just has to last until the alternatives are ready to take its place. Though in the more likely scenario where we continue to neglect it due to widespread irrational fear, the alternatives are developing quickly enough that the consequences will likely amount to mild discomfort. On the civilizational scale it will be more like a speed bump than a wreck.
Also plutonium can easily be used as fuel, where did you get the idea that it can't? Pretty much anything active enough that it gets hot when you have a lot of it can be used as fuel, since all we're really doing is boiling water.
As far as proliferation goes, the US, EU, Russia, China, India, Japan, Canada, and Australia already have either nukes or the ability to make them. That's over half the world's population right there and probably 90% of its energy use. Some countries on that list we may not trust with their nukes so much, but that genie is already out of the bottle. The middle-eastern and African countries that we don't want to have nukes can just keep using conventional power, they don't use enough to matter. They can adopt solar sooner than us anyway because they live in some of the sunniest places on Earth.
Really the second-biggest drawback to nuclear, besides fear, is we might have already dragged our feet too long and basically committed to making this transistion the hard way. We can push through without nuclear too, it'll just be a lot more painful.
By the way if there's a character limit I haven't hit it (and you've probably noticed I tend to ramble, sorry about that), so you can put everything in one post.
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End of line.
Sun, 2016-03-27 11:40
#16
whoa whoa whoa
I never said autocracy was a good thing. I only said that if you had absolute control you institute any energy policy you wished.
Also, as I stated, you can use a particular isotope of plutonium as fuel, but it requires uranium to make.
Sun, 2016-03-27 14:16
#17
Not all fusion is cold fusion
Not all fusion is cold fusion. Traditional fusion is much more promising, and won't take nearly 50 years. Cold fusion may actually be a myth, for all we know.
Sun, 2016-03-27 23:20
#18
all plutonium is artificial
all plutonium is artificial and given the right equipment even non isotopic atoms can be split to produce energy. isotopes just yield more energy because it changes the balance of the energy equation.
ASfrica actually has a deposite of uranium large enough to produce a higher than average backrounds radiotion count despite being miles deep beneath the surface.
There is a nasty truth about solar though. You need ultra pure silicon in order to manufacture it. to get such silicon you require an intense amount of fuel burning, leading to a great deal of carbon emissions in its manufacturing.
Mon, 2016-03-28 00:37
#19
Solar power facilities (the
Solar power facilities (the Fallout Helios-One kind [which do exist], not solar panel based ones) can kill birds, though why is not entirely clear. That's not necessarily a real concern; they don't do this over a particularly large area and there's some doubt about the real amount of kills that are due to the solar, and deaths due to other factors (though birds getting lost or trapped in solar facilities might happen due to the enormity of them; the use of land is a concern regarding ecosystem loss, which is generally a concern for people who like biodiversity). Admittedly, the number of birds killed this way pales in comparison to the birds killed by, say, well-cleaned windows or cats, but it's something that limits the usefulness of one of the more potent types of solar power facilities.
Mon, 2016-03-28 16:21
#20
Silicon
You can use an induction furnace to melt silica and use crystal seeding to produce silicon boules, all of which can be operated using electricity produced using solar panels. Also, not all solar panels require silicon, and the silicon necessary for solar panels is actually used primarily for microchips, which is why it is so pure, you could use far less pure silicon and still manufacture working solar panels.
The number of panels that can be supplied with a single boule of pure silicon is significant. I've actually seen some documentary video footage on the subject, its quite fascinating. They use pressurized water jets to cut the silicon because using any sort of abrasion saw or cutting implement would create silicon dust which is very harmful to breath. A single furnace can produce several boules a day.