Universal Population | Eclipse Phase

Tue, 2010-01-26 09:29

#2

TBRMInsanity TBRMInsanity's picture

Re: Universal Population

I don't think all the infomorphs are included in those numbers, nor are the smaller boosian settlements on Mars (or the different fringe settlements for that matter). My guess is there is about 1 Billion transhumans in all the Solar System (taking the fact that only 10% of all of humanity survived the Fall and using population projections that there would be around 10 Billion humans around the time of the Fall).

—

Jovian Motto: Your mind is original. Preserve it. Your body is a temple. Maintain it. Immortality is an illusion. Forget it.

Wed, 2010-01-27 19:28

#3

Young Freud Young Freud's picture

Re: Universal Population

TBRMInsanity wrote:
I don't think all the infomorphs are included in those numbers, nor are the smaller boosian settlements on Mars (or the different fringe settlements for that matter). My guess is there is about 1 Billion transhumans in all the Solar System (taking the fact that only 10% of all of humanity survived the Fall and using population projections that there would be around 10 Billion humans around the time of the Fall).

I put it more at 1.5 to 2 billion, mostly because the UN estimates for around 2100 between 9 billion (median) to 14 billion (high growth). I've been assuming that EP takes place in near or past 2100, with 60 B.F. being between 2020 (making the fall about 2080) and 2070 (the Fall being 2130). With space colonization and almost unlimited resources from it, there would be more of an incentive to ignore birth control and population controls, although technical immortality could put a hamper on it. Of course, I'd also say that there's probably a 1 billion actual physical transhumans, with another billion existing as infugees, with maybe a few million or more dead and frozen, awaiting to be thawed out and reinstated.

Wed, 2010-01-27 20:42

#4

Sepherim

Re: Universal Population

Actually, the thing with having or not having children is not dependant on the number of ressources but the will of the people living in a certain society, and the social conditions of that society. The best example is that the nations in current day First World have far lower child birth rates than societies in the Third World.

—

The mind is information... hack it! [IMG]http://i80.photobucket.com/albums/j166/Sepherim/Otros/F_Rep.jpg[/IMG] +4 http://tribulaciones.es/

Fri, 2010-01-29 18:56

#5

Bloodwork

Re: Universal Population

From the book

Quote:
Before the Fall, the solar system had a population of approximately eight billion, with all but five million of these people living on Earth. The Fall wiped out almost ninety-five percent of transhumanity, and today the population of the solar system is slightly less than half a billion, with almost all of these transhumans living off the Earth. The vast majority are immortals living in sealed habitats on hostile alien planets or in sealed space colonies, the largest of which hold more than a million inhabitants and are many kilometers long.

—

That which doesn't kill you usually succeeds on the second attempt.

Sun, 2010-01-31 19:12

#6

jackgraham jackgraham's picture

Re: Universal Population

Yup, half a billion. On the issue of cities, if you read the writeups in the Gazetteer, the biggest Martian cities are immense. Valles-New Shanghai has 37 million people -- bigger than any present day city. I wanted to say something about the idea of "countryside," though. The Mars chapter I wrote for _Sunward_ will give more of a feel for this, but the short answer is that on Mars, at least, there is such a thing. Although much of the population lives in the big cities, there's a lot of "rural" population, but they're more involved in things like terraforming than agriculture.

—

J A C K G R A H A M :: Hooray for Earth! http://eclipsephase.com :: twitter @jackgraham @faketsr :: Google+Jack Graham

Sun, 2010-01-31 20:07

#7

Sepherim

Re: Universal Population

Sure there can be countryside in Mars, maybe even in the Moon, but those are actually almost exceptions in the habitats transhumanity now lives in. I mean, there can be no countryside in the vacuum of space because building and maintaining stations is terribly expensive, so I imagine that (maybe with a couple exception) habitats usually have a decently sized population, way over what we could call a modern town, so that the costs can be paid between all and the effort is worth it. No?

—

The mind is information... hack it! [IMG]http://i80.photobucket.com/albums/j166/Sepherim/Otros/F_Rep.jpg[/IMG] +4 http://tribulaciones.es/

Mon, 2010-02-01 09:36

#8

TBRMInsanity TBRMInsanity's picture

Re: Universal Population

Often wondered if two infomorphs can have a child, and if so, how does that work? Do they both create an alpha fork of themselves, and then merge those forks together?

—

Jovian Motto: Your mind is original. Preserve it. Your body is a temple. Maintain it. Immortality is an illusion. Forget it.

Mon, 2010-02-01 10:44

#9

Iv

Re: Universal Population

jackgraham wrote:
Yup, half a billion.

Oh, joy! That's the piece of information I was missing. So now the numbers seem pretty coherent : 200 millions on Mars (aka, the new homeworld) 100 millions (my estimate) on the Moon 50 millions infomorphs (I remember seeing 1/10th of the population) half of them being it by choice. 12 millions in the Jovian zone ~ 5.5 millions in Venus floating cities and habitats (that's quite small) 1 million on Ceres 1 million on Locus That's still 130.5 millions unaccounted for. It would be nice to have figures about the rest. I think most of them are splitted between : - Small distant habitats - Various space habitats in the belt and exterior system - Various space habitats in the inner system - Saturn zone - Exoplanet colonies - Scum barges Did I miss a population center ? It would be nice to have a breakup of the remaining population to get a feeling of their political powers. From what I see there, the planetary consortium encompasses more than 70% of humans, is that right ? I felt the hypercorps were less powerful than that.

Mon, 2010-02-01 13:31

#10

TBRMInsanity TBRMInsanity's picture

Re: Universal Population

Iv wrote:
jackgraham wrote:
Yup, half a billion.
Oh, joy! That's the piece of information I was missing. So now the numbers seem pretty coherent : 200 millions on Mars (aka, the new homeworld) 100 millions (my estimate) on the Moon 50 millions infomorphs (I remember seeing 1/10th of the population) half of them being it by choice. 12 millions in the Jovian zone ~ 5.5 millions in Venus floating cities and habitats (that's quite small) 1 million on Ceres 1 million on Locus That's still 130.5 millions unaccounted for. It would be nice to have figures about the rest. I think most of them are splitted between : - Small distant habitats - Various space habitats in the belt and exterior system - Various space habitats in the inner system - Saturn zone - Exoplanet colonies - Scum barges Did I miss a population center ? It would be nice to have a breakup of the remaining population to get a feeling of their political powers. From what I see there, the planetary consortium encompasses more than 70% of humans, is that right ? I felt the hypercorps were less powerful than that.

You forgot the Titans.

—

Jovian Motto: Your mind is original. Preserve it. Your body is a temple. Maintain it. Immortality is an illusion. Forget it.

Mon, 2010-02-01 13:36

#11

jackgraham jackgraham's picture

Re: Universal Population

Hab populations actually vary a lot. Some are really small (dozens of people), while on the high end, Valles-New Shanghai could itself be considered a habitat, given that most of the population relies on the domes and souk modules for life support. On Mars, small towns that are either domed or made up of clusters of tuna can modules aren't uncommon because the technology for extracting needed resources (breathable atmosphere, water, etc.) from the local environment are mature and reliable. And they need a lot of small, scattered stations to do the grunt work of terraforming. In space, small habs come in a number of flavors. Some of the small ones can exist efficiently as small habs because the inhabitants are heavily modified, not needing as much life support as baseline (splicer) humans. In others -- and this is especially true in places like the Trojans -- the size of a hab is determined by two things: how many people can get along with each other in a confined space, and how willing other habs in their neighborhood are to team up and support each other on big projects, like extracting resources from passing comets. The result is habs in a great variety of sizes and configurations.

—

J A C K G R A H A M :: Hooray for Earth! http://eclipsephase.com :: twitter @jackgraham @faketsr :: Google+Jack Graham

Tue, 2010-02-02 04:14

#12

Iv

Re: Universal Population

I understand that, so my choice of words were maybe poor. But in order to complete my "big figure" I would love to see estimates on the population at least in the Saturn zone (Saturn gravitational well, moons and the associated L4-L5 points) and in exoplanet colonies. Are the later very populous or are they just small bases of a few thousand people ? At least one is undergoing heavy terraformation according to the book, does that mean that people are leaving in the open like rusters on Mars ? That could easily lead to a several millions figure.

Tue, 2010-02-02 05:12

#13

Young Freud Young Freud's picture

Re: Universal Population

TBRMInsanity wrote:
You forgot the Titans.

And Extropia, which has 10 million people.

Mon, 2010-02-08 18:19

#14

jackgraham jackgraham's picture

Re: Universal Population

Here are some of the numbers I worked off of when I wrote the Solar System Gazetteer. I can't promise you that these are 100% canon, but any changes we make down the road shouldn't be too drastic. The Jovian system, not counting the Trojans & Greeks, has 35-40 million people. Another 15 million or so live in the Trojans. There are about 60 million people on Titan. The rest of the Saturn system is very populous as well... I think we have it around 50 million people. While Jupiter is farther Sunward, the environs of Saturn are much more habitable because you still have abundant fuel, and the radiation's not nearly as bad. You've also got a great supply of water and volatiles provided by the Ring system. Rimward from Saturn is very sparsely populated -- probably not even a few hundred thousand people. Oh, and Factors. Maybe. ;)

—

J A C K G R A H A M :: Hooray for Earth! http://eclipsephase.com :: twitter @jackgraham @faketsr :: Google+Jack Graham

Wed, 2010-02-10 11:12

#15

Iv

Re: Universal Population

What about exoplanets ? Do some of them have sizable colonies ? What ballpark is that ? 1+ million, a dozen thousands or really a handful of scientists and scouts ?

Wed, 2010-02-10 11:59

#16

TBRMInsanity TBRMInsanity's picture

Re: Universal Population

The problem with the exoplanets is you can't guarantee that you have a ticket back home (due to the unpredictable nature of the Pandora Gates). This means only people that are willing to leave everything behind for the next biggest score will be a part of these colonies. I would image the population of the largest exoplanet colony would only be a few thousand at best, and only on planets that the Pandora Gate can semi-regularly return to. The biggest problem with exoplanets with established exospheres is that transhumans were never involved in the evolutionary process and as such there will be lots of flora and fauna that will be out right toxic to transhumans. Massive terraforming needs to occur (even more extensively then on Mars) before transhumans can have a sustainable colony. It is the same reason there isn't a nation on Antarctica today. The effort needed to make Antarctica sustainably habitable may not be worth doing.

—

Jovian Motto: Your mind is original. Preserve it. Your body is a temple. Maintain it. Immortality is an illusion. Forget it.

Thu, 2010-02-18 20:55

#17

jackgraham jackgraham's picture

Re: Universal Population

I can't really answer you on the exoplanets, except to say that I'm pretty sure the numbers are supposed to be rather small. Gates haven't been around that long, and only a handful of the planets discovered are nice places to live. The analogy of Antarctic research stations is apt.

—

J A C K G R A H A M :: Hooray for Earth! http://eclipsephase.com :: twitter @jackgraham @faketsr :: Google+Jack Graham

Fri, 2010-02-19 06:34

#18

Psyfer

Re: Universal Population

And lets not forget the poor souls still stuck on Earth... (not that I'd imagine there being more then a million or two of them about, and that's probably being rather generous)

—

Just another Ghost in the Machine...

Fri, 2010-02-19 09:16

#19

TBRMInsanity TBRMInsanity's picture

Re: Universal Population

Psyfer wrote:
And lets not forget the poor souls still stuck on Earth... (not that I'd imagine there being more then a million or two of them about, and that's probably being rather generous)

My guess would be that the number is in the thousands (if that).

—

Jovian Motto: Your mind is original. Preserve it. Your body is a temple. Maintain it. Immortality is an illusion. Forget it.

Mon, 2010-02-22 12:27

#20

Sunchaser

Re: Universal Population

I prefer the idea of a million or more survivors left on Earth myself. it gives me more leeway for various survivor colonies that I can build plus a possible "Terminator: War Against the Machines" vibe if I want it.

Sun, 2010-03-14 12:49

#21

Sepherim

Re: Universal Population

I was re-reading the whole book and finding many things that I had forgotten (it is a dense text, and some things get lost in the way), when I found on page 38 a reference to populations which I find interesting. 8 billion transhumans existed before the Fall 95% of transhumanity was wiped out during it That would leave us with 400 million after the Fall Since current estimates place population slightly under 500 million, humanity has grown quite quickly after the Fall, with roughly 100 million in ten years. This would probably mean that one in five persons is a child under 10 years of age. That would make for a quite healthy population pyramid, and it's a good sign of transhumanity's recovery. Maybe we're not that close to extinction afterall.

—

The mind is information... hack it! [IMG]http://i80.photobucket.com/albums/j166/Sepherim/Otros/F_Rep.jpg[/IMG] +4 http://tribulaciones.es/

Sun, 2010-03-14 14:56

#22

Decivre

Re: Universal Population

Sepherim wrote:
I was re-reading the whole book and finding many things that I had forgotten (it is a dense text, and some things get lost in the way), when I found on page 38 a reference to populations which I find interesting. 8 billion transhumans existed before the Fall 95% of transhumanity was wiped out during it That would leave us with 400 million after the Fall Since current estimates place population slightly under 500 million, humanity has grown quite quickly after the Fall, with roughly 100 million in ten years. This would probably mean that one in five persons is a child under 10 years of age. That would make for a quite healthy population pyramid, and it's a good sign of transhumanity's recovery. Maybe we're not that close to extinction afterall.

"Before the Fall, the solar system had a population of [b]approximately[/b] eight billion, with all but five million of these people living on Earth. The Fall wiped out [b]almost[/b] ninety-five percent of transhumanity, and today the population of the solar system is slightly less than half a billion, with almost all of these transhumans living off the Earth." Do note that they used terms like "approximately" and "almost"... which means these are not exact numbers. None of them are.

—

Transhumans will one day be the Luddites of the posthuman age. [url=http://bit.ly/2p3wk7c]Help me get my gaming fix, if you want.[/url]

Sun, 2010-03-14 17:58

#23

TBRMInsanity TBRMInsanity's picture

Re: Universal Population

The biggest problem I see is that the current habitats will soon be reaching their biomorph ecosystem limit soon. You can only pack so many biomorphs into any given hab before you start stretching the limits of the enviro systems. Synthmorphs do better (as Mars can handle many billion transhumans in synthmorphs before resources are limited).

—

Jovian Motto: Your mind is original. Preserve it. Your body is a temple. Maintain it. Immortality is an illusion. Forget it.

Sun, 2010-03-14 18:16

#24

nick012000 nick012000's picture

Re: Universal Population

That's hardly a real problem; if your habitat is too crowded, you could always just build another one. There's plenty of asteroids out there; noone's going to miss one that noone's living on.

—

+1 r-Rep , +1 @-rep

Sun, 2010-03-14 22:51

#25

TBRMInsanity TBRMInsanity's picture

Re: Universal Population

nick012000 wrote:
That's hardly a real problem; if your habitat is too crowded, you could always just build another one. There's plenty of asteroids out there; noone's going to miss one that noone's living on.

But seriously how much living space is in the solar system given EP technology? A single asteroid can only hold a few thousand (a hundred thousand at most) transhumans.

—

Jovian Motto: Your mind is original. Preserve it. Your body is a temple. Maintain it. Immortality is an illusion. Forget it.

Sun, 2010-03-14 23:15

#26

nick012000 nick012000's picture

Re: Universal Population

TBRMInsanity wrote:
nick012000 wrote:
That's hardly a real problem; if your habitat is too crowded, you could always just build another one. There's plenty of asteroids out there; noone's going to miss one that noone's living on.
But seriously how much living space is in the solar system given EP technology? A single asteroid can only hold a few thousand (a hundred thousand at most) transhumans.

And there are [i]shitloads[/i] of asteroids. A google search says that as of 2007, there were over 350,000 known asteroids in the Solar System. At one million people each (easily reachable, as Extropia proves), that would be over 350 billion people, and that's disregarding the billions of people who could live on planets and moons. The Solar System is nowhere near full yet.

—

+1 r-Rep , +1 @-rep

Mon, 2010-03-15 01:30

#27

King Shere King Shere's picture

Re: Universal Population

A big threatening problems for Habitats, would still be the depletion of resources (not only the natural resources). There should be significantly less asteroids around (many claimed, exploited or "eaten" already), and even the "close ones" would be missed if only for the nano feedstock value of them. That said, discarded mines would have a second hand value of habitat usage. I can picture Habitats gathering & moving asteroids to mine & later grow into.

—

[img]http://boxall.no-ip.org/img/tc_userbar.jpg[/img] [img]http://boxall.no-ip.org/img/exh_userbar.jpg[/img] [img]http://boxall.no-ip.org/img/argo_userbar.jpg[/img] [i]"To find fault is easy; to do better may be difficult."[/i] Plutarch

Mon, 2010-03-15 01:32

#28

Decivre

Re: Universal Population

nick012000 wrote:
And there are [i]shitloads[/i] of asteroids. A google search says that as of 2007, there were over 350,000 known asteroids in the Solar System. At one million people each (easily reachable, as Extropia proves), that would be over 350 billion people, and that's disregarding the billions of people who could live on planets and moons. The Solar System is nowhere near full yet.

Hell, I doubt that "shitload" statistic even accounts for the [i]assload[/i] of asteroids out in the kuiper belt. Even then, we aren't accounting for the [i]shit-ass-ton-load[/i] of objects way out there in the Oort cloud, which stretches out to about a light year away from the sun. The Solar System is far bigger than most people seem to think

—

Transhumans will one day be the Luddites of the posthuman age. [url=http://bit.ly/2p3wk7c]Help me get my gaming fix, if you want.[/url]

Mon, 2010-03-15 04:01

#29

nick012000 nick012000's picture

Re: Universal Population

Decivre wrote:
nick012000 wrote:
And there are [i]shitloads[/i] of asteroids. A google search says that as of 2007, there were over 350,000 known asteroids in the Solar System. At one million people each (easily reachable, as Extropia proves), that would be over 350 billion people, and that's disregarding the billions of people who could live on planets and moons. The Solar System is nowhere near full yet.
Hell, I doubt that "shitload" statistic even accounts for the [i]assload[/i] of asteroids out in the kuiper belt. Even then, we aren't accounting for the [i]shit-ass-ton-load[/i] of objects way out there in the Oort cloud, which stretches out to about a light year away from the sun. The Solar System is far bigger than most people seem to think

I'm not sure if you're mocking me or not. :P

—

+1 r-Rep , +1 @-rep

Mon, 2010-03-15 04:35

#30

Decivre

Re: Universal Population

nick012000 wrote:
I'm not sure if you're mocking me or not. :P

I'm more mocking the "Solar system is too small" claim than anything. The overall Solar system stretches out a full light year and contains beyond plenty of resources and materials to create a multitude of habitats. I doubt that the human race in EP has even gotten into the 1% mark of all the resources there are.

—

Transhumans will one day be the Luddites of the posthuman age. [url=http://bit.ly/2p3wk7c]Help me get my gaming fix, if you want.[/url]

Mon, 2010-03-15 08:11

#31

Arenamontanus Arenamontanus's picture

Re: Universal Population

The transhuman population in EP is *microscopic* compared to what could live in the solar system. There are about 1.5 million asteroids in the main belt alone. If we assume the typical ~1 km asteroid can be turned into a 100,000 inhabitant Cole bubble, then we get space for 150 billion people. There are several million smaller asteroids too; I would expect perhaps an order of magnitude more space from them and the various planet surfaces. All this assumes people live like big, wasteful lumps of protoplasm. Once you start converting this mass into solar collectors and computers running energy efficient infomorphs you get a *vastly* larger population. We are talking about populations on the order of 10^24 to 10^36 here. In fact, as I see EP, most settlements are small groups huddled together in a vast wilderness. Even the Moon and Mars are largely uninhabited with just a few cities surrounded by outposts. The normal experience of being around a lot of others is emulated by keeping together in cities and other high density habitats - there are few low population rural areas, most space outside is just totally, scarily *empty* outback.

—

Mon, 2010-03-15 09:41

#32

nick012000 nick012000's picture

Re: Universal Population

Arenamontanus wrote:
In fact, as I see EP, most settlements are small groups huddled together in a vast wilderness. Even the Moon and Mars are largely uninhabited with just a few cities surrounded by outposts. The normal experience of being around a lot of others is emulated by keeping together in cities and other high density habitats - there are few low population rural areas, most space outside is just totally, scarily *empty* outback.

Like Australia in Space: 90% of our population is in our 10 biggest cities.

—

+1 r-Rep , +1 @-rep

Mon, 2010-03-15 10:06

#33

TBRMInsanity TBRMInsanity's picture

Re: Universal Population

Ok so you have convinced me there is enough living space around, but what about feed stock?

—

Jovian Motto: Your mind is original. Preserve it. Your body is a temple. Maintain it. Immortality is an illusion. Forget it.

Mon, 2010-03-15 10:17

#34

browwiw

Re: Universal Population

Who needs feed stock when you have cornucopia machines? All you need is the counter space for your fabber and a bin or hopper to keep the raw materials in. That said, I'm sure there are many enterprising hypercorps that maintain pastoral habitats to breed, ranch, and slaughter livestock for those wealthy individuals with discerning palettes.

—

"Let’s face it: Most of us are just here to shoot stormtroopers." - Gary M. Sarli

Mon, 2010-03-15 11:40

#35

Arenamontanus Arenamontanus's picture

Re: Universal Population

TBRMInsanity wrote:
Ok so you have convinced me there is enough living space around, but what about feed stock?

With the nanotech of EP, everything is potentially feedstock if you have the energy. An ordinary carbonaceous chondrite asteroid contains a few percent water and carbon compounds, as well as the usual abundance of iron, magnesium, oxygen and silicon. Even a smallish one kilometre asteroid contains a billion tons of mass, which means that you could turn it into a *lot* of stuff. Just consider the objects around you - most of them are organic (you have about 10 million tons of carbon to play with) or metal (hundreds of millions of tons). The real scarcity will be a few rare elements like thulium (anything below the iron row of the periodic system); however, with a few exceptions like barium and lead this is not that different from the earth's crust. Of course, turning asteroids or planets into feedstock takes a lot of energy - you have to pay the binding energy in order to get the free elements. In the inner solar system you get about a kilowatt per square meter of free solar energy, but things turn trickier further out. Thank heaven for nuclear power... except that now you need to get the right isotopes. All in all, the solar system is a very abundant place with EP tech. But fried sparrows do not fly into your mouth automatically, you have to set up the manufacturing systems for them. And for heaven's sake, add a firewall so they don't go exsurgent! :-)

—

Mon, 2010-03-15 16:32

#36

TBRMInsanity TBRMInsanity's picture

Re: Universal Population

Arenamontanus wrote:
With the nanotech of EP, everything is potentially feedstock if you have the energy. An ordinary carbonaceous chondrite asteroid contains a few percent water and carbon compounds, as well as the usual abundance of iron, magnesium, oxygen and silicon. Even a smallish one kilometre asteroid contains a billion tons of mass, which means that you could turn it into a *lot* of stuff. Just consider the objects around you - most of them are organic (you have about 10 million tons of carbon to play with) or metal (hundreds of millions of tons). The real scarcity will be a few rare elements like thulium (anything below the iron row of the periodic system); however, with a few exceptions like barium and lead this is not that different from the earth's crust. Of course, turning asteroids or planets into feedstock takes a lot of energy - you have to pay the binding energy in order to get the free elements. In the inner solar system you get about a kilowatt per square meter of free solar energy, but things turn trickier further out. Thank heaven for nuclear power... except that now you need to get the right isotopes. All in all, the solar system is a very abundant place with EP tech. But fried sparrows do not fly into your mouth automatically, you have to set up the manufacturing systems for them. And for heaven's sake, add a firewall so they don't go exsurgent! :-)

Ok that sounds like a better answer, thank you.

—

Jovian Motto: Your mind is original. Preserve it. Your body is a temple. Maintain it. Immortality is an illusion. Forget it.