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Making Predictions

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Wed, 2012-10-24 23:36

Erenthia

Making Predictions

Ok, So I'm planning a game (even though I won't get to start it for some time) which will involve all the players playing AGIs. They have been in various simulspace worlds for something like 30 subjective years and in fact were "born" in them. These simulations very much run the gamut (to give the players a level of diversity in their background) so their origins can be from any kind of fictional setting. The idea is that when they leave the simulation and sleeve, they will pick up augmentations/equipment/etc based on who and what they were in the simulation. For instance, if someone was Master Chief, they'll keep their gun skill, get some body armor and a plasma rifle and be pretty much set. If they were Drizzt Do'urden they'll take the blade skill and get a couple monofilament swords, etc. Obviously some concepts are harder than others - and that's why I'm here. One player had an idea for a character who, in his world, could see the future. I figured that should be easy to translate because of the vast amount of data available in EP there had to be someway to perform high-speed datamining and determine most likely outcomes. The problem is I'm having some trouble stating it. Sure Kinesics could be used to predict a actions based on their intentions, but there's a lot of other things that fall under the idea of "prediction" like strategy that wouldn't fall under Kinesics. I *did* notice a few psi-sleights that I could adapt, but they tend to say things like, "+10 to skill rolls involving predictions" but I'm not entirely certain which skills that would apply to. Any help would be very much appreciated. Thanks

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The end really is coming. What comes after that is anyone's guess.

Thu, 2012-10-25 00:01

NewtonPulsifer NewtonPulsifer's picture

It's a game breaking magical

It's a game breaking magical power, not a skill, so you don't allow it. If the player really really loves the idea, then they can be an async with 10 moxie.

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"I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve."- Isoroku Yamamoto

Thu, 2012-10-25 01:59

Erenthia

NewtonPulsifer wrote:It's a

NewtonPulsifer wrote:
It's a game breaking magical power, not a skill, so you don't allow it. If the player really really loves the idea, then they can be an async with 10 moxie.

Frankly that's pretty far from the attitude I take when I run games. If there's an idea that I like (and I like this one) I try to find ways to make it work within the existing system. There's no reason it needs to be game breaking, since it is not in fact a magical power, but rather a series of calculations based on an absurd amount of data. For that matter, such calculations needn't always be right. I just need to find a a mechanic. If you're having trouble imaging this, then maybe it would be better to think of it this way, "To which skills could the Predictive Boost sleight reasonably be applied?" EDIT: Or even better: "What skill rolls would you associate with Probability Mapping software"

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The end really is coming. What comes after that is anyone's guess.

Thu, 2012-10-25 04:04

Arenamontanus Arenamontanus's picture

Basically, the AGI grew up in

Basically, the AGI grew up in a probability simulator. They have been trained to intuitively see causal chains, make accurate inferences and run subconscious mental simulations. I would suggest giving them an extreme INT, very high levels of Academics: Mathematics [Statistics], Academics: Game theory, Academics: Decision theory, and indeed a Forecasting skill. Predictive skills like Fray, Kinesics, or even Profession: Forecaster also make sense. However, forecasting in the real world is limited by data and the fact that many systems are chaotic or actively try to outtthink you. So I suggest that the Forecasting skill is best used when there is enough data and time to do a proper analysis, and then give a good probability map. It might also be useful to give the character Luck and similar positive advantages - they just tend to do the right thing. And by the way, a good forecaster ought to have Persuasion to convince people about their forecasts being correct, whether they are or not...

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Thu, 2012-10-25 10:06

Erenthia

Forecasting! Thanks that's

Forecasting! Thanks that's what I was looking for, though the other ideas will come in handy as well. I can assign bonuses or penalties based on available information and time to think. I'm thinking a basic Forecast is at bare minimum a Complex (mental) Action which only gives an idea of an outcome a few seconds in advance (if used against an opponent in combat it gives an idea of what they'll do on their next action phase, more phases per MoS) Actually on an opponent with absolutely no data (just having been ambushed) I think I'll apply a -60 penalty (it's only possible at all if weapons are readied and/or kinesics is useful), and the penalty goes down by -10 every time the opponent takes an action. Again this is only for the combat use of Forecasting. More typical uses of Forecasting (like predicting the behaviors of the Hypercorps) would be Task Actions that would take hours or days. Ok, I think I have a handle on this now - though if I had suspected a house rule would be involved I wouldn't have put it in the General section. I really thought that with software and psi-sleights that revolved around predictions there would be a core way to do it.

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The end really is coming. What comes after that is anyone's guess.

Thu, 2012-10-25 20:32

OneTrikPony OneTrikPony's picture

:D the test should be a Task

:D the test should be a Task action with a time frame equal to the amount of time before the predicted event occurs. :D That way your character's team mates can enjoy hearing him say; "Yep. I knew that was gonna happen." almost every time.

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Mea Culpa: My mode of speech can make others feel uninvited to argue or participate. This is the EXACT opposite of what I intend when I post.

Thu, 2012-10-25 21:50

CodeBreaker CodeBreaker's picture

"Hmm, yes, exactly as I

"Hmm, yes, exactly as I thought" "You said that last time..." "And I was right!" *Allies perforate analyst with lead* "I... I expected that..."

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Thu, 2012-11-01 20:01

jackgraham jackgraham's picture

Another interesting

Another interesting alternative would be a forecasting ability that functions on a macro scale. It's useless for combat, but if you're willing to strain credulity a bit, you can seed all kinds of plot hooks via woodjie Asimovian psychohistory-type stuff. (C.f., mention of cliodynamics in Rimward). I don't think it's very plausible, but it could be really interesting from a plot standpoint. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychohistory_%28fictional%29

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J A C K G R A H A M :: Hooray for Earth! http://eclipsephase.com :: twitter @jackgraham @faketsr :: Google+Jack Graham

Fri, 2012-11-02 05:39

Arenamontanus Arenamontanus's picture

One fun thing with this is

One fun thing with this is that it might make the character aware of the big shadows on the walls. It can notice large scale manipulations that nobody else sees... either a case of overly sensitive pattern-recognition leading to paranoia, or real awareness of the other Powers That Be who use similar abilities. In a side-campaign I had a memorable moment when the seed AGI PC realized that there were a message hidden in the random junk sample it had of solar system culture. You had to be superintelligent to see it, but it was there. There are Powers out there that deliberately spread out warnings to upstarts like it to behave... or else.

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Sat, 2012-11-03 20:56

#10

Unity

Arenamontanus wrote:One fun

Arenamontanus wrote:
One fun thing with this is that it might make the character aware of the big shadows on the walls. It can notice large scale manipulations that nobody else sees... either a case of overly sensitive pattern-recognition leading to paranoia, or real awareness of the other Powers That Be who use similar abilities. In a side-campaign I had a memorable moment when the seed AGI PC realized that there were a message hidden in the random junk sample it had of solar system culture. You had to be superintelligent to see it, but it was there. There are Powers out there that deliberately spread out warnings to upstarts like it to behave... or else.

seed AGI PC? Okay, you have to tell me how you ran that.

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Sun, 2012-11-04 02:26

#11

Arenamontanus Arenamontanus's picture

Unity wrote:seed AGI PC? Okay

Unity wrote:
seed AGI PC? Okay, you have to tell me how you ran that.

It was a kind of side-campaign to the main campaign, played one-on-one. The PC had forked a copy that was trying to transcend, and we played out the attempt. The first half was all about devious tricks to find a really quiet and unknown spot to work in. Then the PC began to upgrade itself, using certain tools it had gained access to. I used a game system I posted here a long time ago (http://eclipsephase.com/godhood-numbers) and we discovered it was not too interesting and fairly clunky... but then we got to the increasingly weird discoveries the young superintelligence made. In the end, what we got was a pretty cool NPC with its own agenda. I ought to write up the little adventure one could make from trying to trace it down from its peculiar manipulations.

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Tue, 2012-11-06 02:52

#12

rogue-z

So what would a forecasting

So what would a forecasting skill look like? Type: Is this an Active or a Knowledge skill? Is it a Field skill? Linked Aptitude: I could see using COG or maybe INT. What it is: Training in using data to predict probabilities. When you use it: The forecasting skill can be used... I got nuthin' for this one. (Potential) Sample Skills: Macro (psychohistory maybe?), Weather, Game Theory (?), others... Specializations: Any of the above or things like politics, market trends, and more I'm sure. Any ideas?

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