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Moore's Curves and Eclipse Phase.

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prototyper prototyper's picture
Moore's Curves and Eclipse Phase.
Given the relatively frantic pace that technology is developing at in our time, and the subsequent reduction in price and also the increase in availability and ability as one generation of technology replaces the former, I was wondering if that pace continues in the EP timeline, and what effect that has overall on the "cost" and ability of various tech listed in the books. If the characters wait a year, does that implant drop a cost category? Do medichines become a "trivial" cost good ? The impression I get from the undertones of what I have read is that sort of drive still exists, maybe even more urgently with the need to meet the new challenges transhumanity faces (More habitat space, more morphs for those in dead storage, more resources to support them, more exposure to hostile environments, etc.). The Fall, and its subsequent effect on infrastructure could have slowed things to a crawl, but I don't get that impression. I know that in my campaigns it can happen anyway I decide, but I was wondering if there was any official stance on this sort of thing, and of course, to see what others think of this. Cheers!!
Tyrnis Tyrnis's picture
Re: Moore's Curves and Eclipse Phase.
I would say no to the implant dropping a price category, personally. On the pragmatic side as a GM, it makes things much easier if prices stay relatively constant. On the IC side, it also makes sense to keep the latest and greatest models at the same price, though as with software, you might allow someone to pay less for a piece of old gear that suffers a penalty on any rolls it's involved with.
Geonis Geonis's picture
Re: Moore's Curves and Eclipse Phase.
Interesting read, had to look it up. I feel Moore's Curve would in essence not hold up to the technology of the Eclipse Phase time. The cost per unit would always remain constant due to the way nanofabrication works. As stated in the book, (pg 64) new technology is in essence readily available to all at cost. The other issue is the performance limit, almost a non-issue, 2 hours later (ignoring extracting it, breaking it down and reinstalling it), I will have a new medichines that will perform at a higher level than the old ones if the new technology comes out. Unless somehow new/more materials are needed to make it, even than, why not break down a fork to add to it. The true cost of items in the eclipse phase era is the time to create the objects. Modifiers exist such as rare materials, legality and accessibility to an compatible nanofabricater. To me, the cost of objects being time and materials, I don't see how price dropping would apply. Just my opinion.
TadanoriOyama TadanoriOyama's picture
Re: Moore's Curves and Eclipse Phase.
I'd drop prices fairly quickly, depending on the item in question, as a narrative tool, not as a large scale change in the balance of the game. I'd run it as the cost category of an item should only be reduced when something better becomes available that makes the current item less interesting.
DivineWrath DivineWrath's picture
Re: Moore's Curves and Eclipse Phase.
From what I understand, there have been new technologies since the fall. The Remade morph was made open source after the fall (and some suspect that the fact it still looks human suggests that the fall affected even the Ultimates). In Gatecrashing, they've made new pod morphs using local lifeforms. There is also a new type of habitat, called a Hamilton cylinder, is supposed to a new kind of habitat that builds itself using nano technology. At present, only 3 are being built, but they are already being used for habitation. In regards to costs, technology does keep making goods cheaper and easier to make. Its at the point where technology probably could take care of themselves without transhuman intervention, but its not likely to happen so soon after the fall. Currently, it seems that the only things that will remain costly for the foreseeable future is morphs and living space. There is still isn't enough of either to go around, and a great many refugees still sleep in cold storage. There will be no shortage of demand for a while at least, which is the primary driving force behind high price of goods. Something to watch out for is if the Hypercorps try to form a cartel to keep prices up (they may have already done so). A cartel is basically an agreement between a bunch of companies to restrict production, as to keep the demand high, so they can charge high prices. This happened with oil a while back. A cartel's weakness is, there is a strong incentive to break the pact as doing so will allow the company to make large profits in the short term. This is at the expense of the other members, at least until they catch on and react. Its difficult to put a cartel back together after that (as many would be members no longer trust each other), but considering that the hypercorps are run by immortals, short term profits are going to look rather small after a few centuries of long term profits.
Sepherim Sepherim's picture
Re: Moore's Curves and Eclipse Phase.
I wouldn't modify them, mostly to keep balance in the game. But if you want to implement some sort of technological evolution, I'd do so with modifiers. Last year's object of any sort (say, a gun) would have a -10 modifier to all tests done with it, and cost 10% less. That way, the standards remain and so does game balance, but you can also force your players to spend their ressources to stay SOTA.
Pyrite Pyrite's picture
Re: Moore's Curves and Eclipse Phase.
Medichines have to constantly compete with new diseases and bioweapons, so unless there's a breakthrough and the way they work is changed to be drastically more efficient, essentially what you'll have are 'updates' to defend against emerging medical threats. Applying the same thing to a gun seems silly, though. I don't imagine that most people are participating in this kind of arms race, and the same gun that you shot a down on his luck XP dealer with three years ago should still shoot a slumming off-grid socialite today just as well.
'No language is justly studied merely as an aid to other purposes. It will in fact better serve other purposes, philological or historical, when it is studied for love, for itself.' --J.R.R. Tolkien
Decivre Decivre's picture
Re: Moore's Curves and Eclipse Phase.
Medical technology does not tend to follow Moore's Curve. Even as reducing production costs hit, prices only taper off generally once in a medicine's lifetime, right around the time patents end. At that point, the generic competition hits fierce and prices reduce to just above production cost. So long as it takes money to produce (and even with nanotech, you need matter and energy to produce, and that still costs), the price will never drop below the cost of the base materials and energy, plus profit. Moore's Curve primarily applies to any product that can be improved efficiency-wise without increasing the cost of materials and production. On some level, it can also be applied to services so long as the labor cost for the service can be decreased (like how the costs for for accounting services have gone down as computers have been integrated into the industry). You'll primarily see the curve affect two fields: computer hardware and software. Now you probably won't see it applying to computer hardware anymore, as you won't see dramatic increases in computing power as you do today. Remember that transhuman society is paranoid about Seed AI, and people take great efforts to avoid creating enough concentrated processing power to house one. This paranoia acts as a social barrier to the production of increasingly improved computation power, and one that probably won't be surpassed in the near future of the setting. People who make an effort to pass that barrier are going to put themselves in a lot of crosshairs, including the protagonist organization of the series. Software will likely have this applied to it, however. New exploits and flaws are being discovered while old ones are being patched, and efficiency improves as new computation techniques are applied. This means that most software is likely to continue to improve over time, and new software will come in to potentially disrupt the playfield. I would rule that older software takes penalties while also having reduced cost. In that same vein, cutting-edge software that isn't publicly available is likely to have bonuses and an increased cost. Devices that are reliant on firmware might also be affected if they are not kept patched... cyberware or other devices might take penalties to defend against hacking if it is running outdated firmware, and have bonuses against it if it is running cutting edge firewalls or prototype firmware that hasn't hit the market (in the latter case, it might have some bugs as a tradeoff).
Transhumans will one day be the Luddites of the posthuman age. [url=http://bit.ly/2p3wk7c]Help me get my gaming fix, if you want.[/url]
Arenamontanus Arenamontanus's picture
Re: Moore's Curves and Eclipse Phase.
When you produce something you learn to make it more efficiently - this was observed by T.P Wright in the aircraft industry (he measured the growth of productivity at a factory) and holds for most things. One reason Moore's law is so extreme is that we make *a lot* of transistors and chips. It works for a lot of domains: http://tuvalu.santafe.edu/~bn/workingpapers/NagyFarmerTrancikBui.pdf Whether it holds for *everything* is another matter. The cost of gadgets tend to come down exponentially, and software can be sold for free. But services are slower to decrease in price since somebody has to be paid to do them. This is why I expect most stuff in EP to be dominated by the price of R&D and service, rather than the material basis. I would run the threadmill of progress in my game by giving negative penalties to using old stuff in many domains (like software), rather than just add a lot of positive bonuses. The new stuff is better, but most of the time only relative measures matter.
Extropian
Decivre Decivre's picture
Re: Moore's Curves and Eclipse Phase.
Arenamontanus wrote:
When you produce something you learn to make it more efficiently - this was observed by T.P Wright in the aircraft industry (he measured the growth of productivity at a factory) and holds for most things. One reason Moore's law is so extreme is that we make *a lot* of transistors and chips. It works for a lot of domains: http://tuvalu.santafe.edu/~bn/workingpapers/NagyFarmerTrancikBui.pdf
Once we get to nanotechnology and advanced semi-intelligent robotic assembly systems, we are for the most part at the entropic limit for production efficiency. The reduction in cost from there is going to be dramatically small, and likely going to have a trivial effect on price. You generally only see a reduction in production costs very early on, and tapers off down the line even today. You could see this effect in the car industry, where cars actually dropped significantly in cost with the creation of production lines (Ford Model T), but have not really done that again since (though they might again, when newer processes come about).
Transhumans will one day be the Luddites of the posthuman age. [url=http://bit.ly/2p3wk7c]Help me get my gaming fix, if you want.[/url]
Murdoch Murdoch's picture
Re: Moore's Curves and Eclipse Phase.
I always had some kind of problem with this SOTA thing in contexts using tech like implants and software. For the former, given you maintain them well, their bonus should not drop, their properties not fade. Same goes with software. This fancy release of, say, your favorite text or image editor won't perform any worse. You can still achieve the same results you did 2 years ago on the same picture. I usually see improvements only once in a while, the rest is more update for security, patching bugs, integrating new formats compatibility. So maybe for things like a web browser or other softs interfaced to multiple techs I would downgrade them after a reasonable period of time (given retrocompatibility, updates should not affect readily your current suite unless major tech changes like changing communication protocols, even if after some time, people will have gradually jumped ship and gone past the point where they don't care anymore taking old stuff into account because it impairs new designs, if it is not related to major changes. This is just when the thing is starting being obsolete. And then, if your software can still achieve the same results, on new systems it will be unable to run or in an impaired fashion. If you want to keep only one system, you upgrade. For implants, Guns and so on, most improvements benefit either to the further major tech step (while sometimes it isn't when a real advance is done) or contribute to better quality control, easier production and so on, but they will usually use this for improving their margin. Prices of the book are likely those of product's maturity, for new thing I would see 20 or 50% higher but that is nothing player characters will see for the current items. Most of changes are for them cosmetic at best, or they are seamlessly integrated. Occasionally though, a production version is significantly better than other, in performance or because it opens new possibilities unseen. Like a handgun that can be modified for burst fire due to the peculiar conception of one part, or a firmware that improves some circumstantial performances, or is insensitive to some exploit. But it can also go the other way. For could example, some people try to avoid some hard disks versions. It can become something of a subplot to acquire such thing because it has properties useful for the current adventure. So for implants and guns, i would mostly play on this. Except for interfaced things again. But for a speed booster, it is not likely you get a 1% bonus every month. It is more than after 5 years a real but small breakthrough was done but unless it is for scenaristic purposes I would not do it is during PC life (indeed they are immortal but in game you will rarely see their lifetime going over such duration. And if they do, well upgrade or die:)). At last what is deemed as major change could just be marketing. Edit: And indeed; you don't really need to change bonus of an implant. You can add some twist to the dice so to say the implant performs better or the gun is more reliable against armor, or like having a minimal value for damage (if you do xD10, you can say minimal damage is 2X and not X like the old models)
What piece of work is a Man, How noble in Reason, how infinite in faculties, in form and moving how express and admirable, In action how like an Angel! In apprehension how like a god, the beauty of the world, the paragon of animals. and yet to me, what i
Decivre Decivre's picture
Re: Moore's Curves and Eclipse Phase.
Murdoch wrote:
I always had some kind of problem with this SOTA thing in contexts using tech like implants and software. For the former, given you maintain them well, their bonus should not drop, their properties not fade.
SOTA is mostly relevant in the field of bugs and exploits. I would recommend that outdated cyberware and devices only take a penalty to infosec tests to resist being hacked into, but operate relatively the same otherwise.
Transhumans will one day be the Luddites of the posthuman age. [url=http://bit.ly/2p3wk7c]Help me get my gaming fix, if you want.[/url]
Murdoch Murdoch's picture
Re: Moore's Curves and Eclipse Phase.
Yes that was exactly my point. I would eventually extend this to other tests depending on communication protocols, though. And if you have some contest with a guy augmented with more recent implant; except if a whole new level is available (like sometimes in some shows or fictions) and the PC is really obsolete; well, I would only give small advantages to the updated guy.
What piece of work is a Man, How noble in Reason, how infinite in faculties, in form and moving how express and admirable, In action how like an Angel! In apprehension how like a god, the beauty of the world, the paragon of animals. and yet to me, what i
Sepherim Sepherim's picture
Re: Moore's Curves and Eclipse Phase.
Actually, I don't think it would only apply to implant hacking and such things. On the contrary, it would apply to anything that has an opposed test. Sure, you can get the same result with any photograph program now as you did five years ago, but with the same photograph someone using a recent SOTA program would obtain better results. Thus, since we are rolling opposed to see what people like more, you would have a penalty if you were using the old program to represent the extra filters and things the new program has. That's the same reason it works for hacking, too. As for cosmetic changes and such, well, as you pointed out, players' game lifes don't usually run that long. I guess that's why they didn't include no SOTA rules in the basic book. So I'd keep it as a GM controlled thing. Players are getting too much money, well, you make them spend some; they too OP, you make them face people with new prototypes which have bonuses (and maybe some drabacks too), etc. And, of course, the pace of SOTA advancing would depend on each technology: cars evolve slower than computer videogames, for example.
Arenamontanus Arenamontanus's picture
Re: Moore's Curves and Eclipse Phase.
Decivre wrote:
Arenamontanus wrote:
When you produce something you learn to make it more efficiently - this was observed by T.P Wright in the aircraft industry (he measured the growth of productivity at a factory) and holds for most things. One reason Moore's law is so extreme is that we make *a lot* of transistors and chips. It works for a lot of domains: http://tuvalu.santafe.edu/~bn/workingpapers/NagyFarmerTrancikBui.pdf
Once we get to nanotechnology and advanced semi-intelligent robotic assembly systems, we are for the most part at the entropic limit for production efficiency.
Not really. Just because you get another efficiency jump like the production line doesn't mean you have now solved all problems. For example, designing optimal robot motion patterns is typically NP-hard, so you should expect a lot of learning to occur as you make stuff and slowly find ways of making it more efficiently with your equipment. And the big issue is of course inventing new, more capable and more complex things: not only does that require intelligent systems, but the ramifications have a combinatorial explosion necessitating enormous amounts of testing before they can be put on the market. Old stuff has old and potentially known exploits, but new stuff has unknown exploit possibilities that nobody knows yet.
Extropian
Decivre Decivre's picture
Re: Moore's Curves and Eclipse Phase.
Sepherim wrote:
Actually, I don't think it would only apply to implant hacking and such things. On the contrary, it would apply to anything that has an opposed test. Sure, you can get the same result with any photograph program now as you did five years ago, but with the same photograph someone using a recent SOTA program would obtain better results. Thus, since we are rolling opposed to see what people like more, you would have a penalty if you were using the old program to represent the extra filters and things the new program has. That's the same reason it works for hacking, too.
I disagree with this. Many programs scale laterally rather than up. New versions of adobe Photoshop and Acrobat add a couple new features (that generally don't really improve anything, per se), and otherwise just upgrade to the newer file protocols. I don't see why you would necessarily get a penalty for using dated programs. In that same vein, you probably won't get a penalty for using old word-processing software for entering an essay contest, or playing on an older chess client, or any number of other scenarios.
Arenamontanus wrote:
Not really. Just because you get another efficiency jump like the production line doesn't mean you have now solved all problems. For example, designing optimal robot motion patterns is typically NP-hard, so you should expect a lot of learning to occur as you make stuff and slowly find ways of making it more efficiently with your equipment.
Recycling technologies have probably reached a peak point in which any wasted materials can be 100% reused. So my guess is that in the world of manufacture, the biggest factor that separates the most and least efficient production methods is the amount of energy spent in the process. But most mass-manufacture is likely to occur in the inner system, where energy isn't really a concern (up until the asteroid belt, you have access to the biggest fusion reactor for a few light years). So really, the only real factor in design is any material cut-downs they can do in design (which means that they'll be looking to make smaller, lighter versions of [i]anything[/i]), or material changes that could reduce the overall cost-per-weight. I don't imagine that creating the exponential cost reductions you see in fields today.
Arenamontanus wrote:
And the big issue is of course inventing new, more capable and more complex things: not only does that require intelligent systems, but the ramifications have a combinatorial explosion necessitating enormous amounts of testing before they can be put on the market. Old stuff has old and potentially known exploits, but new stuff has unknown exploit possibilities that nobody knows yet.
Definitely. The competitive world of business isn't so much about reducing costs for a product anymore; it's more about creating the next product that will oust it. I imagine that most of the competition that happens between hypercorps happen well before a product hits the market... it's all about R&D now. As for exploits, I imagine that a majority of devices have firmware updates that will happen near-constantly. The only people that have to really worry about falling behind are those that pirate and those that code for themselves.
Transhumans will one day be the Luddites of the posthuman age. [url=http://bit.ly/2p3wk7c]Help me get my gaming fix, if you want.[/url]
Murdoch Murdoch's picture
Re: Moore's Curves and Eclipse Phase.
Decivre wrote:
I disagree with this. Many programs scale laterally rather than up. New versions of adobe Photoshop and Acrobat add a couple new features (that generally don't really improve anything, per se), and otherwise just upgrade to the newer file protocols. I don't see why you would necessarily get a penalty for using dated programs. In that same vein, you probably won't get a penalty for using old word-processing software for entering an essay contest, or playing on an older chess client, or any number of other scenarios.
I second that. Indeed some new programs improve really the thing, but most just make algorithms a bit faster or more efficient; but on a scale that is mostly not measurable by human spirits, unless through benchmarks that give sometimes no good indication of the real behaviour on the field (compare two cameras with benches, and you can say, this image quality is better and so on. Look at it with your eyes; you will really have a different take, i don't want to name brands for now but I have some recent examples of this). But yeah, indeed, if you compare some PS CS3 or 4 with both last version and have a global thing to do with it; not just small changes; you will likely go faster or easier because of introduction of a lot of automation for tasks that computer could not do before as brain can lack processing power but is ultimately efficient to do some things (like identifying faces, eyes; distinguishing focal planes and so on...) But at a time when AI exist and has such capabilities; even original version would include such features; so you can not count on this to see further improvement on your program. Also; it should be remembered that hardware updates don't necessarily mean something that will be better. If you look at computer that is mostly true. For home appliances it is not always. And when you take electronic devices; out of smartphones and so on; nothing could be more subject to variations. Again an example out from the photography thing (ok, right, I confess, it is one of my really time consuming hobbies); but take the whole series of reflex cameras from brand X, most of the time there are improvements; but on the most low end consumer products it is not guaranteed that you achieve better quality, be it by look assessment or by bench evaluation. My first cam was quite that case; they had to throw like 3 products before it became vastly superior in this area, while the 2 first successors were equal at best. Indeed, for general abilities it was a different matter as they were faster; had more memory and so on, but on the point I needed more (as other features were sufficient for my use at that time); it was not true.
Sepherim wrote:
As for cosmetic changes and such, well, as you pointed out, players' game lifes don't usually run that long. I guess that's why they didn't include no SOTA rules in the basic book. So I'd keep it as a GM controlled thing. Players are getting too much money, well, you make them spend some; they too OP, you make them face people with new prototypes which have bonuses (and maybe some drabacks too), etc. And, of course, the pace of SOTA advancing would depend on each technology: cars evolve slower than computer videogames, for example.
Anyway that should always be GM take, but I would more do it for scenaristic reasons or randomly, than for "balancing power". That doesn't feel right to me. If they have too much money, they earned it by being efficient, or it is your mistake. If you made a mistake; OOC discussion is better. If they are efficient; they deserve it. And random things can also be better in the sense that sometimes, it won't affect them, while sometimes they will have to react. It is less artificial pressure while keeping importance, that way.
What piece of work is a Man, How noble in Reason, how infinite in faculties, in form and moving how express and admirable, In action how like an Angel! In apprehension how like a god, the beauty of the world, the paragon of animals. and yet to me, what i
Pyrite Pyrite's picture
Re: Moore's Curves and Eclipse Phase.
Decivre wrote:
Definitely. The competitive world of business isn't so much about reducing costs for a product anymore; it's more about creating the next product that will oust it. I imagine that most of the competition that happens between hypercorps happen well before a product hits the market... it's all about R&D now.
And the marketing. Oh dear merciless gods the marketing.
'No language is justly studied merely as an aid to other purposes. It will in fact better serve other purposes, philological or historical, when it is studied for love, for itself.' --J.R.R. Tolkien
Lord High Munchkin Lord High Munchkin's picture
Re: Moore's Curves and Eclipse Phase.
Of course, each new EP book that comes out can be seen as a whole load of new upgrades and models available in a game campaign. New stuff appears all the time (abstracted to when "real-life" readers find out about them by buying the new book).
Decivre Decivre's picture
Re: Moore's Curves and Eclipse Phase.
Lord High Munchkin wrote:
Of course, each new EP book that comes out can be seen as a whole load of new upgrades and models available in a game campaign. New stuff appears all the time (abstracted to when "real-life" readers find out about them by buying the new book).
To a degree, that's basically what I've always done. Since my campaigns are fairly local in scope, the introduction of new equipment to the game is generally justified by the characters traveling to a hab or region they've never been to with products they've simply never seen yet, or as a brand new release (the Tako morph was introduced in our game as having just hit shelves).
Transhumans will one day be the Luddites of the posthuman age. [url=http://bit.ly/2p3wk7c]Help me get my gaming fix, if you want.[/url]
nezumi.hebereke nezumi.hebereke's picture
Re: Moore's Curves and Eclipse Phase.
1) Moore's law has different rates for different technologies. Absolute computer processing power doubles every 10 years (more or less), but medical technology doubles its effectiveness at a rate closer to 50 years. 2) The advancement of technology is not in isolation. Yes, my 1.3GHz machine is tremendously more powerful than the 286 in my garage, but it takes *longer* to boot up and run programs. Why? Windows XP and Open Office take more resources than DOS and Wordstar. 3) (Related to 2), the prices for computers have not fluctuated significantly over the past years. Moore's Law has instead resulted in a diversity of other changes; we have more powerful computers, that support more functionality. We have more integrated computers. We have smaller computers. Given these things, I would postulate that implant prices will not fall in the near future except for extremely cutting-edge technologies, however the technology will have more functionality, better integration, and more applications.